Is Ukraine ready to redefine what victory looks like?

Crunch time for Ukraine

The Weekend Intelligence - Crunch time for Ukraine | Podcasts | The Economist

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The Weekend Intelligence: Crunch time for Ukraine

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Ukraine’s President has been in New York this week.  With a victory plan in his pocket, he’s been shoring up support at the UN and among America’s presidential contenders.

Ukraine’s President has been in New York this week.  With a victory plan in his pocket, he’s been shoring up support at the UN and among America’s presidential contenders.

On the world stage Volodymyr Zelensky presents a united front but back home things are a little more patchy.

It’s crunch time for Ukraine. Winter is coming, some Western partners are tiring, Ukrainians are tiring too. In this special episode of The Weekend Intelligence our Editor-in-chief Zanny Minton Beddoes travels to Ukraine to speak to generals, soldiers and civilians to find out what lies ahead.

It’s crunch time for Ukraine. Winter is coming, some Western partners are tiring, Ukrainians are tiring too. In this special episode of The Weekend Intelligence our Editor-in-chief Zanny Minton Beddoes travels to Ukraine to speak to generals, soldiers and civilians to find out what lies ahead.

To hear more about Ukraine, join our live event on October 25th. Our editors will discuss the situation on the battlefield, the impact of the American election and the diplomacy in the background. To sign up, go to: economist.com/registertoday

To hear more about Ukraine, join our live event on October 25th. Our editors will discuss the situation on the battlefield, the impact of the American election and the diplomacy in the background. To sign up, go to: <a href="https://economist.com/registertoday" target="_blank">economist.com/registertoday</a>

The Weekend Intelligence

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Jason Palmer [00:00:03] The economist on yesterday’s show, we took a look at Volodymyr Zelensky s trip to America, how the Ukrainian president, with a plan for victory in his pocket, is shoring up support at the UN and among America’s presidential contenders. This is the picture that much of the world gets Mr. Zelensky as avatar of Ukraine’s people, that resolve their unity of purpose on the ground. It is far, far more complicated. So we’re going to take you there. I’m Jason Palmer, and this is the weekend intelligence from our editor in chief, Zanny Minton. Beddoes travels to Ukraine, meeting generals, soldiers and civilians near the front lines to get a real gauge of the answer to a question that Mr. Zelensky is not posing. What kind of an end to this war is good enough?

Jason Palmer [00:00:03] The economist on yesterday’s show, we took a look at Volodymyr Zelensky s trip to America, how the Ukrainian president, with a plan for victory in his pocket, is shoring up support at the UN and among America’s presidential contenders. This is the picture that much of the world gets Mr. Zelensky as avatar of Ukraine’s people, that resolve their unity of purpose on the ground. It is far, far more complicated. So we’re going to take you there. I’m Jason Palmer, and this is the weekend intelligence from our editor in chief, Zanny Minton. Beddoes travels to Ukraine, meeting generals, soldiers and civilians near the front lines to get a real gauge of the answer to a question that Mr. Zelensky is not posing. What kind of an end to this war is good enough?

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:01:15] Somewhere near here.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:01:15] Somewhere near here.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:01:16] We’ve been given a drop in to meet. Even better. Could be.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:01:16] We’ve been given a drop in to meet. Even better. Could be.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:01:21] Deputy commander. 93rd Brigade.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:01:21] Deputy commander. 93rd Brigade.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:01:27] Up the hill until this. Skyline.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:01:27] Up the hill until this. Skyline.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:01:31] This part of Ukraine is flat nearly as far as the eye can see, which on a clear day in mid-September is quite far. The sky stretches across a basin full of mining towns, where the main geographic features are not hills or mountains, but landscaped piles of rock and earth dug from the ground, minerals extracted and then smoothed into flat top mounds. Quilts like these.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:01:31] This part of Ukraine is flat nearly as far as the eye can see, which on a clear day in mid-September is quite far. The sky stretches across a basin full of mining towns, where the main geographic features are not hills or mountains, but landscaped piles of rock and earth dug from the ground, minerals extracted and then smoothed into flat top mounds. Quilts like these.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:01:56] I see that waiting for us as a vehicle. There is a pickup truck. Some soldiers around. So we have a very good view here.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:01:56] I see that waiting for us as a vehicle. There is a pickup truck. Some soldiers around. So we have a very good view here.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:02:10] And the surrounding countryside that somebody with an aerial.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:02:10] And the surrounding countryside that somebody with an aerial.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:02:13] The names of these small towns and villages might not be familiar to you yet, but they may soon become as infamous as Bakhmut. Directly to the east of me. That city was almost entirely razed last year by the Russians campaign to get control of it, which they do now. It’s a blackened and destroyed prize. To the south of me is perovskite, which many worry will likely suffer the same fate. You can’t see the Russian positions with the naked eye a bit here. So they’re behind us, 12km behind.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:02:13] The names of these small towns and villages might not be familiar to you yet, but they may soon become as infamous as Bakhmut. Directly to the east of me. That city was almost entirely razed last year by the Russians campaign to get control of it, which they do now. It’s a blackened and destroyed prize. To the south of me is perovskite, which many worry will likely suffer the same fate. You can’t see the Russian positions with the naked eye a bit here. So they’re behind us, 12km behind.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:02:46] So what do you have? And if you stand up, can you see their lines? Now it’s a little bit further. No, no, it was a bit too.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:02:46] So what do you have? And if you stand up, can you see their lines? Now it’s a little bit further. No, no, it was a bit too.

Ivan Buryak [00:02:54] Much to run, a bit.

Ivan Buryak [00:02:54] Much to run, a bit.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:02:57] Better through the scope of a rifle, jokes our guide, Ivan. But they’re close. And can their drones see us? Duck, duck? Yeah. Okay, well, let’s let’s move on before they see us. Too much. And somewhere out there, though, I can’t see him either is flag.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:02:57] Better through the scope of a rifle, jokes our guide, Ivan. But they’re close. And can their drones see us? Duck, duck? Yeah. Okay, well, let’s let’s move on before they see us. Too much. And somewhere out there, though, I can’t see him either is flag.

Vlad [00:03:15] My name is pride. I’m, captain, commander of the motor unit. I’m staying in a field not far from my positions. Oh, really? Close to the front line. You can hear the sound of explosions. Under my command is like 42 people. So, to add some context, we are now fighting in the Donetsk region. Half of my men and women are staying in a battle positions really close to the enemy’s and working from the mortars. That.

Vlad [00:03:15] My name is pride. I’m, captain, commander of the motor unit. I’m staying in a field not far from my positions. Oh, really? Close to the front line. You can hear the sound of explosions. Under my command is like 42 people. So, to add some context, we are now fighting in the Donetsk region. Half of my men and women are staying in a battle positions really close to the enemy’s and working from the mortars. That.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:04:09] Just, you know.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:04:09] Just, you know.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:04:12] Overhead. Always. Are the drones. Vlad has been keeping an audio diary for us during a crucial period at a crucial part of the frontline. Russian and Ukrainian forces are battling for control of that town just south of here. It’s a big strategic prize, a mining town and an important transport hub. And with the landscape so flat, there are not many natural defenses between Pawlowski and the next town, or indeed the administrative boundaries of Donetsk region. The region Putin says he wants to liberate. Loose pork, rusk and Russian forces could roll across this plain. That’s not Ukraine’s only challenge right now. Winter is coming. Some Western partners are tiring, and the U.S. election is only six weeks away. It’s crunch time for Ukraine, and I’ve traveled from the east of the country to Washington, D.C. to work out what lies ahead. First, we’re walking along a darkened corridor from the commander’s office. First, I wanted to get a sense of how the war is being fought. And increasingly, that’s a cat and mouse game between man and road. Down towards the cellars, I guess, in the basement of a nondescript Soviet era building. I can’t tell you exactly where there are workstations with gaming chairs and banks of screens, each one showing the video feed from a different drone. Hans is in charge of one of them. Anything moves and he goes after it.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:04:12] Overhead. Always. Are the drones. Vlad has been keeping an audio diary for us during a crucial period at a crucial part of the frontline. Russian and Ukrainian forces are battling for control of that town just south of here. It’s a big strategic prize, a mining town and an important transport hub. And with the landscape so flat, there are not many natural defenses between Pawlowski and the next town, or indeed the administrative boundaries of Donetsk region. The region Putin says he wants to liberate. Loose pork, rusk and Russian forces could roll across this plain. That’s not Ukraine’s only challenge right now. Winter is coming. Some Western partners are tiring, and the U.S. election is only six weeks away. It’s crunch time for Ukraine, and I’ve traveled from the east of the country to Washington, D.C. to work out what lies ahead. First, we’re walking along a darkened corridor from the commander’s office. First, I wanted to get a sense of how the war is being fought. And increasingly, that’s a cat and mouse game between man and road. Down towards the cellars, I guess, in the basement of a nondescript Soviet era building. I can’t tell you exactly where there are workstations with gaming chairs and banks of screens, each one showing the video feed from a different drone. Hans is in charge of one of them. Anything moves and he goes after it.

Speaker 7 [00:05:56] They start moving from.

Speaker 7 [00:05:56] They start moving from.

Ivan Buryak [00:05:59] This big forest. But you come to our position over here and we see how they start moving.

Ivan Buryak [00:05:59] This big forest. But you come to our position over here and we see how they start moving.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:06:09] He shows us the results of his handiwork. When a group of Russian armored vehicles tried to move in on a Ukrainian position.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:06:09] He shows us the results of his handiwork. When a group of Russian armored vehicles tried to move in on a Ukrainian position.

Speaker 7 [00:06:16] Over here. We just read one, then here BMP.

Speaker 7 [00:06:16] Over here. We just read one, then here BMP.

Ivan Buryak [00:06:20] You can see it with.

Ivan Buryak [00:06:20] You can see it with.

Speaker 7 [00:06:22] Video over here.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:06:25] When I look up, I see that the video feed on one of the live screens has swooped and zoomed in on a tall structure in a brown field. They’re on the lookout for both Russian soldiers and Russian equipment.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:06:25] When I look up, I see that the video feed on one of the live screens has swooped and zoomed in on a tall structure in a brown field. They’re on the lookout for both Russian soldiers and Russian equipment.

Speaker 7 [00:06:38] A Russian solider come to this antenna. And something fixed there, on this antenna.

Speaker 7 [00:06:38] A Russian solider come to this antenna. And something fixed there, on this antenna.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:06:44] What do you think they fixed to that end?

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:06:44] What do you think they fixed to that end?

Speaker 7 [00:06:46] I think this is, maybe communication between artillery and, some flying.

Speaker 7 [00:06:46] I think this is, maybe communication between artillery and, some flying.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:06:52] That’s why you want to take.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:06:52] That’s why you want to take.

Speaker 4 [00:06:53] Yeah, yeah, yeah.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:06:56] It’s too windy right now, but they’ll be back for that antenna later. And they’ll monitor Russian communications to find out exactly what it was. It’s an impressive operation, all overseen by a young man who goes by the callsign Achilles. Can I ask you how old you are?

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:06:56] It’s too windy right now, but they’ll be back for that antenna later. And they’ll monitor Russian communications to find out exactly what it was. It’s an impressive operation, all overseen by a young man who goes by the callsign Achilles. Can I ask you how old you are?

Ivan Buryak [00:07:14] So, two, three years old now?

Ivan Buryak [00:07:14] So, two, three years old now?

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:07:17] 33 years old. And how long have you been commander for?

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:07:17] 33 years old. And how long have you been commander for?

Ivan Buryak [00:07:20] Is that water over the bridge?

Ivan Buryak [00:07:20] Is that water over the bridge?

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:07:22] Since the start of the war. And yours is a one of the most effective drone battalions.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:07:22] Since the start of the war. And yours is a one of the most effective drone battalions.

Speaker 4 [00:07:29] The top three? Yes.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:07:32] Achilles or Yuri is 33, with short, dark hair, darker eyebrows and a single earring. The golden hoop with an engraved bell bottom is a replica of an old Cossack style, an independent Ukrainian warrior class from centuries past. Yuri joined the National Guard at 18 and fought in eastern Ukraine when Russia first invaded in 2014. After he was severely injured, he started a business in Kiev and joined the city council. But since the first day of the full scale invasion, he’s been fighting again alongside his friends, this time as one of Ukraine’s drone hot shots. And what kind of drones do you specialize in?

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:07:32] Achilles or Yuri is 33, with short, dark hair, darker eyebrows and a single earring. The golden hoop with an engraved bell bottom is a replica of an old Cossack style, an independent Ukrainian warrior class from centuries past. Yuri joined the National Guard at 18 and fought in eastern Ukraine when Russia first invaded in 2014. After he was severely injured, he started a business in Kiev and joined the city council. But since the first day of the full scale invasion, he’s been fighting again alongside his friends, this time as one of Ukraine’s drone hot shots. And what kind of drones do you specialize in?

Ivan Buryak [00:08:13] Can you cut the bone you have done or adjusted years afterwards?

Ivan Buryak [00:08:13] Can you cut the bone you have done or adjusted years afterwards?

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:08:18] At this point, Yuri switches to Ukrainian. And so my colleague, our correspondent Oleg Karol, is translating.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:08:18] At this point, Yuri switches to Ukrainian. And so my colleague, our correspondent Oleg Karol, is translating.

Ivan Buryak [00:08:25] So in short, a whole complex of drones, from the reconnaissance drones.

Ivan Buryak [00:08:25] So in short, a whole complex of drones, from the reconnaissance drones.

Speaker 8 [00:08:28] To strike drones, kamikaze drones, the bombers, the whole range.

Speaker 8 [00:08:28] To strike drones, kamikaze drones, the bombers, the whole range.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:08:33] And now, two and a half years into the war, I am trying to work out what is likely to happen in the next six months or one year. When you look at your drone capability and the Russians drone capability, are they ahead of them?

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:08:33] And now, two and a half years into the war, I am trying to work out what is likely to happen in the next six months or one year. When you look at your drone capability and the Russians drone capability, are they ahead of them?

Speaker 8 [00:08:52] So we’re talking about the winged enemy reconnaissance drones. Then the enemy is far ahead because they were preparing for this even before the start of the war in 2014.

Speaker 8 [00:08:52] So we’re talking about the winged enemy reconnaissance drones. Then the enemy is far ahead because they were preparing for this even before the start of the war in 2014.

Ivan Buryak [00:09:04] To put with my approval. So if we’re.

Ivan Buryak [00:09:04] To put with my approval. So if we’re.

Speaker 8 [00:09:08] Talking about that particular class, it’s been modernized. Russia has an obvious superiority there because Ukraine, in fact, only really started developing its own complexes of this kind at the start of the full scale invasion.

Speaker 8 [00:09:08] Talking about that particular class, it’s been modernized. Russia has an obvious superiority there because Ukraine, in fact, only really started developing its own complexes of this kind at the start of the full scale invasion.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:09:23] The picture that emerges is complicated. Russia might still be ahead when it comes to those traditional winged reconnaissance drones. But Ukraine is innovating fast. They’re better at creating and using smaller tech drones and even using AI for targeting. The problem for Ukraine as Yuri’s boss Vadim, such a risky tells me is scale.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:09:23] The picture that emerges is complicated. Russia might still be ahead when it comes to those traditional winged reconnaissance drones. But Ukraine is innovating fast. They’re better at creating and using smaller tech drones and even using AI for targeting. The problem for Ukraine as Yuri’s boss Vadim, such a risky tells me is scale.

Ivan Buryak [00:09:44] They don’t have better drones, so they have a lot of drugs.

Ivan Buryak [00:09:44] They don’t have better drones, so they have a lot of drugs.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:09:48] Vadim Swarovski is Ukraine’s commander of unmanned systems forces. But his role is new. The first of its kind in the world. He thinks it’s just as game changing as the creation of air forces at the beginning of the last century. It’s his job to bring the kind of drone technology that Achilles and other tech savvy brigades are using to the whole of Ukraine’s armed forces. He’s working on new airborne reconnaissance drones, sea drones and land based drones, too. It takes an average of seven small drones to destroy a tank. But near where the Russians are throwing not just men, but all their military might. They’re protecting equipment with even more electronic jamming.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:09:48] Vadim Swarovski is Ukraine’s commander of unmanned systems forces. But his role is new. The first of its kind in the world. He thinks it’s just as game changing as the creation of air forces at the beginning of the last century. It’s his job to bring the kind of drone technology that Achilles and other tech savvy brigades are using to the whole of Ukraine’s armed forces. He’s working on new airborne reconnaissance drones, sea drones and land based drones, too. It takes an average of seven small drones to destroy a tank. But near where the Russians are throwing not just men, but all their military might. They’re protecting equipment with even more electronic jamming.

Speaker 4 [00:10:32] Sometimes it’s. Well, drones, for one thing.

Speaker 4 [00:10:32] Sometimes it’s. Well, drones, for one thing.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:10:35] Multiply that across the entire front. And the numbers are staggering.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:10:35] Multiply that across the entire front. And the numbers are staggering.

Ivan Buryak [00:10:39] Our forces that are full and flying. More than 1 million and 300,000 fly. And on the frontline of.

Ivan Buryak [00:10:39] Our forces that are full and flying. More than 1 million and 300,000 fly. And on the frontline of.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:10:48] 1,300,000 drone flights.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:10:48] 1,300,000 drone flights.

Speaker 4 [00:10:52] In one month or one months month.

Speaker 4 [00:10:52] In one month or one months month.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:10:56] For Asia. The focus is less on Western weapons than Western money. He tells me Ukraine can produce better drones more cheaply than anything that partners could send. 250 drone producers are making more than the military can afford to buy off them. Individual brigade commanders are crowdfunding to purchase drones directly from a network of manufacturers, bypassing headquarters entirely. The official position is that Ukraine will fight for crops that if the supply of Western weapons speeds up, its soldiers can hold the line. Not only that, but with enough support, they can retake the territory they lost, not just in this war, but back to 2014, when Russia first pushed into the Donbas and seized Crimea. But what I learned in my travels across Ukraine, and the various conversations that I had both on the record and off, is that whisper. It is in trouble. One senior official told me he considers it already lost, and again, whisper it. But Ukraine won’t have the capacity anytime soon to push the Russians out, take back its land and return to the country’s 1991 borders. No one will admit it publicly, but the real point now is to stop the Russian advance for long enough to build realistic defenses, both physical and political, to permanently protect what Ukraine currently has. It’s not actually the flat agricultural land that we’re driving through right now that make this really, really important. It’s the mining. It’s the steelmaking into the prairies. We’re heading for one of those mining towns. Havelock had a town of 100,000 people.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:10:56] For Asia. The focus is less on Western weapons than Western money. He tells me Ukraine can produce better drones more cheaply than anything that partners could send. 250 drone producers are making more than the military can afford to buy off them. Individual brigade commanders are crowdfunding to purchase drones directly from a network of manufacturers, bypassing headquarters entirely. The official position is that Ukraine will fight for crops that if the supply of Western weapons speeds up, its soldiers can hold the line. Not only that, but with enough support, they can retake the territory they lost, not just in this war, but back to 2014, when Russia first pushed into the Donbas and seized Crimea. But what I learned in my travels across Ukraine, and the various conversations that I had both on the record and off, is that whisper. It is in trouble. One senior official told me he considers it already lost, and again, whisper it. But Ukraine won’t have the capacity anytime soon to push the Russians out, take back its land and return to the country’s 1991 borders. No one will admit it publicly, but the real point now is to stop the Russian advance for long enough to build realistic defenses, both physical and political, to permanently protect what Ukraine currently has. It’s not actually the flat agricultural land that we’re driving through right now that make this really, really important. It’s the mining. It’s the steelmaking into the prairies. We’re heading for one of those mining towns. Havelock had a town of 100,000 people.

Speaker 8 [00:12:41] Pablo Grande also has an explosives factory, a military complex there. What is interesting about whether or not it still has an active coal mine, a good chunk of the workforce now are women 500 since 2022, simply because the local mines have been asked to provide, a certain amount of, manpower for the front. And it’s it’s interesting in, in not being necessarily what you’d call a frontline city. It is a city where people are near enough and close enough to the missiles that land to be thinking about war every day, and about the consequences of what war would look like if it continued.

Speaker 8 [00:12:41] Pablo Grande also has an explosives factory, a military complex there. What is interesting about whether or not it still has an active coal mine, a good chunk of the workforce now are women 500 since 2022, simply because the local mines have been asked to provide, a certain amount of, manpower for the front. And it’s it’s interesting in, in not being necessarily what you’d call a frontline city. It is a city where people are near enough and close enough to the missiles that land to be thinking about war every day, and about the consequences of what war would look like if it continued.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:13:20] If Pucovski falls, which is clearly a possibility, and the Russians take the rest of the towns and villages on the plains of the Donbas, then Pavlo Rud will be the last sizable Ukrainian town before the Russians. Before heading in, we pull over to get fuel. What was. What was that bus that just went by? It looked like a kind of police bus. It was a bus with police sirens.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:13:20] If Pucovski falls, which is clearly a possibility, and the Russians take the rest of the towns and villages on the plains of the Donbas, then Pavlo Rud will be the last sizable Ukrainian town before the Russians. Before heading in, we pull over to get fuel. What was. What was that bus that just went by? It looked like a kind of police bus. It was a bus with police sirens.

Speaker 8 [00:13:45] So if you looked closely at the front of that bus was the sign. Three hundreds. Now, in military terms, 300 means severely wounded. 200 means dead. And you see these 300 lorries, busses coming past pretty frequently along this road because it’s the main road from across Canada, theaters in the Donbas, to Dnipro, one of the main the best military hospitals. Since 2014, Dnipro has been the. And here we go. The sirens you hear in the background. What do you want us to do? I think we should probably move to a different place now. Okay. So we got somewhere which is more central and less likely to be at London, a petrol station which is known to be used by military people.

Speaker 8 [00:13:45] So if you looked closely at the front of that bus was the sign. Three hundreds. Now, in military terms, 300 means severely wounded. 200 means dead. And you see these 300 lorries, busses coming past pretty frequently along this road because it’s the main road from across Canada, theaters in the Donbas, to Dnipro, one of the main the best military hospitals. Since 2014, Dnipro has been the. And here we go. The sirens you hear in the background. What do you want us to do? I think we should probably move to a different place now. Okay. So we got somewhere which is more central and less likely to be at London, a petrol station which is known to be used by military people.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:14:46] I don’t know. I really, really sad seeing this bus.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:14:46] I don’t know. I really, really sad seeing this bus.

Speaker 8 [00:14:50] Yeah. Mine. They’re pretty frequent. And the fact that it’s a big bust as well. That was a very big lesson, that the bigger the losses and bigger the muscles.

Speaker 8 [00:14:50] Yeah. Mine. They’re pretty frequent. And the fact that it’s a big bust as well. That was a very big lesson, that the bigger the losses and bigger the muscles.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:15:04] The airstrikes. The busses full of wounded and dead soldiers. Military vehicles on the roads and at the petrol stations and soldiers in uniform on the streets. Havelock Road feels like a town in a country at war. Something that the larger cities like Kiev and Odessa don’t feel like at all. Recent polling suggests that Ukrainians attitudes towards the war are changing a bit, and a half of the population is now open to the idea of a negotiated end to the fighting. The question is on what terms? The vast majority are still opposed to giving up any territory, even Crimea or the parts of the Donbas that Russia has now occupied for a decade. But the number considering it has shot up since last autumn after the failure of Ukraine’s counter-offensive. 32% of Ukrainians would now consider some territorial concessions in exchange for peace. And the trend is more pronounced in those parts of the country closer to the fighting. And so I was curious about that. Nobody. Nobody did. Nobody did. Tatiana is selling flowers in the street. Professional looking bouquets that she’s arranged out of cuttings from her own garden. She cycled here towing the flowers behind her bike on a red wagon. And in front of the wagon is a handwritten sign. She’s not just selling flowers, but an apartment. So you’re selling your apartment to people?

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:15:04] The airstrikes. The busses full of wounded and dead soldiers. Military vehicles on the roads and at the petrol stations and soldiers in uniform on the streets. Havelock Road feels like a town in a country at war. Something that the larger cities like Kiev and Odessa don’t feel like at all. Recent polling suggests that Ukrainians attitudes towards the war are changing a bit, and a half of the population is now open to the idea of a negotiated end to the fighting. The question is on what terms? The vast majority are still opposed to giving up any territory, even Crimea or the parts of the Donbas that Russia has now occupied for a decade. But the number considering it has shot up since last autumn after the failure of Ukraine’s counter-offensive. 32% of Ukrainians would now consider some territorial concessions in exchange for peace. And the trend is more pronounced in those parts of the country closer to the fighting. And so I was curious about that. Nobody. Nobody did. Nobody did. Tatiana is selling flowers in the street. Professional looking bouquets that she’s arranged out of cuttings from her own garden. She cycled here towing the flowers behind her bike on a red wagon. And in front of the wagon is a handwritten sign. She’s not just selling flowers, but an apartment. So you’re selling your apartment to people?

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:16:35] They’re not listening to you. No, it’s not. Mine is my children’s house.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:16:35] They’re not listening to you. No, it’s not. Mine is my children’s house.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:16:41] And why are they selling it to you?

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:16:41] And why are they selling it to you?

Speaker 7 [00:16:43] You call it the police, you know. There you go.

Speaker 7 [00:16:43] You call it the police, you know. There you go.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:16:51] So they left to Poland, and they already got an apartment there, so they don’t need their apartment.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:16:51] So they left to Poland, and they already got an apartment there, so they don’t need their apartment.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:16:56] So they’re not coming back.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:16:56] So they’re not coming back.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:16:58] To.

Speaker 7 [00:16:58] Lose a fortune telling you.

Speaker 7 [00:16:58] Lose a fortune telling you.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:17:00] They really want to come back. But I don’t think they will.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:17:00] They really want to come back. But I don’t think they will.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:17:04] And what about you? How do you feel with the front coming closer?

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:17:04] And what about you? How do you feel with the front coming closer?

Speaker 7 [00:17:07] Yeah. You know. Yeah. Nationalist. I’ve been able to say so. Let you know.

Speaker 7 [00:17:07] Yeah. You know. Yeah. Nationalist. I’ve been able to say so. Let you know.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:17:15] I really love Ukraine. I would call myself a nationalist. Ukrainian nationalist. And I will do anything, for Ukraine to win this war.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:17:15] I really love Ukraine. I would call myself a nationalist. Ukrainian nationalist. And I will do anything, for Ukraine to win this war.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:17:24] And do you think that most people in public. Right. Share your views, want the war to continue and want a Ukrainian victory?

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:17:24] And do you think that most people in public. Right. Share your views, want the war to continue and want a Ukrainian victory?

Speaker 7 [00:17:32] And that’s tomorrow. Thank you for your teaching. And now let’s move on. Ukraine to Olya Sanchez. How everything is done. Bassel.

Speaker 7 [00:17:32] And that’s tomorrow. Thank you for your teaching. And now let’s move on. Ukraine to Olya Sanchez. How everything is done. Bassel.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:17:43] So there is quite a lot of people in Pablo Garage itself who are like pro Ukrainian people. But, since the big war, and we have many people, many incomers from eastern Ukraine, from the Knights region. And I would call I would divide them into two groups. Some of them are, like, they don’t care. And the rest, they are quite pro-Russian. So now the, cities mixed with different views.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:17:43] So there is quite a lot of people in Pablo Garage itself who are like pro Ukrainian people. But, since the big war, and we have many people, many incomers from eastern Ukraine, from the Knights region. And I would call I would divide them into two groups. Some of them are, like, they don’t care. And the rest, they are quite pro-Russian. So now the, cities mixed with different views.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:18:14] And how would you feel if the Russians end up taking all of Donetsk if they are just 50km down the road is Russia Partizan.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:18:14] And how would you feel if the Russians end up taking all of Donetsk if they are just 50km down the road is Russia Partizan.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:18:24] I will become a Partizan.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:18:24] I will become a Partizan.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:18:28] And what will you do as a partizan?

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:18:28] And what will you do as a partizan?

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:18:30] You show a little partizan.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:18:30] You show a little partizan.

Speaker 7 [00:18:32] He is very seldom.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:18:34] I would cook for the soldiers.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:18:34] I would cook for the soldiers.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:18:37] The Russian ones she means. And there’s a glint in her eye. There’s a history to Ukrainian grandmothers poisoning Russian soldiers with pies. Tatiana thinks the Ukrainian soldiers will keep fighting down to the last man.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:18:37] The Russian ones she means. And there’s a glint in her eye. There’s a history to Ukrainian grandmothers poisoning Russian soldiers with pies. Tatiana thinks the Ukrainian soldiers will keep fighting down to the last man.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:18:53] Yes, until the last Ukrainian.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:18:53] Yes, until the last Ukrainian.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:18:55] Because there are many people in the West who say it is time for a peace deal. A peace deal where Russia keeps the territory that it has taken and the Ukraine keeps what it is still got but doesn’t get it back.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:18:55] Because there are many people in the West who say it is time for a peace deal. A peace deal where Russia keeps the territory that it has taken and the Ukraine keeps what it is still got but doesn’t get it back.

Crunch time for Ukraine

Is Ukraine ready to redefine what victory looks like?

Transcript

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