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Who’s winning in Pennsylvania?

Checks and Balance - Who’s winning in Pennsylvania? | Podcasts | The Economist

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A key Keystone: the race for Pennsylvania

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Whoever wins Pennsylvania will probably win the presidency: according to The Economist’s forecast model it’s the most likely tipping point state. We’ve travelled to three different areas to assess how the campaign is going, and try to read the electoral tea leaves. Who’s winning in Pennsylvania?

Whoever wins Pennsylvania will probably win the presidency: according to <a href="https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-2024-election/prediction-model/president/pennsylvania%20">The Economist’s forecast model</a> it’s the most likely tipping point state. We’ve travelled to three different areas to assess how the campaign is going, and try to read the electoral tea leaves. Who’s <a href="https://www.economist.com/united-states/2024/09/19/pennsylvania-the-crucial-battleground-in-americas-election">winning in Pennsylvania?</a>

John Prideaux hosts with Charlotte Howard and Idrees Kahloon.

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John Prideaux [00:00:10] Mississippi is the further south. Much of Indiana used to be called Louisiana. Florida marks what was once the city’s northern boundary. And Ohio hugs East Potomac Park. But of all the streets in Washington, D.C., named after the nation’s 50 states, the most famous, the wide Grand Boulevard that links the Capitol building and the White House is called Pennsylvania Avenue. No one knows for sure why it was the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania which was awarded the creme de la creme of D.C. streets. The most likely explanation is that the nation’s capital, having been moved from Philadelphia to D.C., it was intended as a consolation prize. Pennsylvania Avenue is the road of the White House. And for Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, the road to the White House is likely to lie via Pennsylvania’s 19 Electoral College votes. With 32 days to go until the 2024 election. I’m John Prideaux and this is checks and balance from The Economist. Each week we take one big theme shaping American politics and explore it in depth. Today. Who’s winning in Pennsylvania? Whoever captures Pennsylvania will probably be elected president. According to the economists forecast model. It’s the most likely tipping point state. We’ve travelled to three different parts of the Commonwealth to assess how the campaign is going and try to read the electoral tealeaves.

John Prideaux [00:00:10] Mississippi is the further south. Much of Indiana used to be called Louisiana. Florida marks what was once the city’s northern boundary. And Ohio hugs East Potomac Park. But of all the streets in Washington, D.C., named after the nation’s 50 states, the most famous, the wide Grand Boulevard that links the Capitol building and the White House is called Pennsylvania Avenue. No one knows for sure why it was the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania which was awarded the creme de la creme of D.C. streets. The most likely explanation is that the nation’s capital, having been moved from Philadelphia to D.C., it was intended as a consolation prize. Pennsylvania Avenue is the road of the White House. And for Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, the road to the White House is likely to lie via Pennsylvania’s 19 Electoral College votes. With 32 days to go until the 2024 election. I’m John Prideaux and this is checks and balance from The Economist. Each week we take one big theme shaping American politics and explore it in depth. Today. Who’s winning in Pennsylvania? Whoever captures Pennsylvania will probably be elected president. According to the economists forecast model. It’s the most likely tipping point state. We’ve travelled to three different parts of the Commonwealth to assess how the campaign is going and try to read the electoral tealeaves.

John Prideaux [00:01:56] What will it take to win in Pennsylvania in November? With me this week to discuss what’s going on in the Keystone State in the last few weeks of this election are Charlotte Howard and Idrees Kahloon. We’ve all been to Pennsylvania recently, but we didn’t manage to go together, which seems like a bit of a shame. But that does mean we covered a lot of ground. Charlotte, how are you doing? What’s going on? I can see you’re back in New York. What’s up there?

John Prideaux [00:01:56] What will it take to win in Pennsylvania in November? With me this week to discuss what’s going on in the Keystone State in the last few weeks of this election are Charlotte Howard and Idrees Kahloon. We’ve all been to Pennsylvania recently, but we didn’t manage to go together, which seems like a bit of a shame. But that does mean we covered a lot of ground. Charlotte, how are you doing? What’s going on? I can see you’re back in New York. What’s up there?

Charlotte Howard [00:02:38] I’m doing well. We haven’t discussed Eric Adams on the pod yet. As a New York resident, I’m waiting to see when our mayor, when or whether our mayor will decide that he should no longer be the mayor, given the range of charges brought against him by the federal government.

Charlotte Howard [00:02:38] I’m doing well. We haven’t discussed Eric Adams on the pod yet. As a New York resident, I’m waiting to see when our mayor, when or whether our mayor will decide that he should no longer be the mayor, given the range of charges brought against him by the federal government.

John Prideaux [00:02:53] It’s an amazing story. It does feel a bit like D.C. in the 80s. Idrees, how are you doing? What’s up in Washington?

John Prideaux [00:02:53] It’s an amazing story. It does feel a bit like D.C. in the 80s. Idrees, how are you doing? What’s up in Washington?

Idrees Kahloon [00:02:58] Washington is good. I just got back from Pittsburgh, which I really like. I spent a summer there many years ago interning for the local paper. I really like it. It’s one of these charming cities that has a lot of beauty that people don’t appreciate. There’s something about the hills and the bridges and everything. And also, it peaked at the right time, which is important. You want a city that peaked around Art deco time, not a city that peaked around brutalism time. That’s that’s very bad.

Idrees Kahloon [00:02:58] Washington is good. I just got back from Pittsburgh, which I really like. I spent a summer there many years ago interning for the local paper. I really like it. It’s one of these charming cities that has a lot of beauty that people don’t appreciate. There’s something about the hills and the bridges and everything. And also, it peaked at the right time, which is important. You want a city that peaked around Art deco time, not a city that peaked around brutalism time. That’s that’s very bad.

Charlotte Howard [00:03:21] I completely agree with you on that Idrees, both that I love Pittsburgh and that there are cities that came of age at a certain time in the early 20th century when the families that were making lots of money really invested in beautiful architecture. And I’m grateful for that.

Charlotte Howard [00:03:21] I completely agree with you on that Idrees, both that I love Pittsburgh and that there are cities that came of age at a certain time in the early 20th century when the families that were making lots of money really invested in beautiful architecture. And I’m grateful for that.

John Prideaux [00:03:36] This episode of the podcast is not sponsored by the Pennsylvania Tourist Board, but it might as well be because the part of the state that I went to, Pennsylvania eight is very, very pretty, particularly at this time of year. Beautiful, full colour and just all around a very nice place to be. America is very beautiful. This is true. Before we get into it, though, this is the last episode of Checks and Balance that we’re making free to listen to. If you want to carry on listening to us until the election and beyond, then you’ll need to be a subscriber if you are already. Thank you. That makes all the journalism we do here possible. If you’re not, we really hope you will consider joining us. Search Economist Podcasts for a free Trial. Okay, Charlotte, we’re going to start off with you. You went to Eastern Pennsylvania. Tell us about the trip you took to the state’s third biggest city.

John Prideaux [00:03:36] This episode of the podcast is not sponsored by the Pennsylvania Tourist Board, but it might as well be because the part of the state that I went to, Pennsylvania eight is very, very pretty, particularly at this time of year. Beautiful, full colour and just all around a very nice place to be. America is very beautiful. This is true. Before we get into it, though, this is the last episode of Checks and Balance that we’re making free to listen to. If you want to carry on listening to us until the election and beyond, then you’ll need to be a subscriber if you are already. Thank you. That makes all the journalism we do here possible. If you’re not, we really hope you will consider joining us. Search Economist Podcasts for a free Trial. Okay, Charlotte, we’re going to start off with you. You went to Eastern Pennsylvania. Tell us about the trip you took to the state’s third biggest city.

Charlotte Howard [00:04:19] Yes, I went to Allentown, which is an hour or so north of Philadelphia, about two hours west of New York. And it is in that blue belt of Democratic counties in the east of Pennsylvania is distinct from the Philadelphia suburbs, though it has an industrial past. It’s right next to Northampton County, which is a key swing county in this election. And I went to Allentown to speak to Christopher Borick, who is a professor of political science at Muhlenberg College. And he set out Pennsylvania’s political geography for me.

Charlotte Howard [00:04:19] Yes, I went to Allentown, which is an hour or so north of Philadelphia, about two hours west of New York. And it is in that blue belt of Democratic counties in the east of Pennsylvania is distinct from the Philadelphia suburbs, though it has an industrial past. It’s right next to Northampton County, which is a key swing county in this election. And I went to Allentown to speak to Christopher Borick, who is a professor of political science at Muhlenberg College. And he set out Pennsylvania’s political geography for me.

Christopher Borick [00:04:53] When you think about Pennsylvania, you think about it as multiple regions with very separate political identities. The southeast part of the state is the Philadelphia metropolitan area, one of the largest in the country. It has very prosperous, highly educated suburbs. And that part of the state has a large share of the electorate and one that has increasingly become democratic over the last few election cycles and are now in many ways the engine of democratic success in the state. You move out of the southeast corner of the state, into the north and the western parts of the state. And it quickly becomes very rural. Pennsylvania also as one of the largest rural populations in the United States. And those rural areas are deeply conservative. There are some pockets of cities out Pittsburgh, out West, Harrisburg, Scranton, Erie that are still fairly Democratic. But outside of southeast Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania is a different political entity. It’s often seen as more Midwestern and its identity, while the Southeast is truly Atlantic metropolitan in its nature.

Christopher Borick [00:04:53] When you think about Pennsylvania, you think about it as multiple regions with very separate political identities. The southeast part of the state is the Philadelphia metropolitan area, one of the largest in the country. It has very prosperous, highly educated suburbs. And that part of the state has a large share of the electorate and one that has increasingly become democratic over the last few election cycles and are now in many ways the engine of democratic success in the state. You move out of the southeast corner of the state, into the north and the western parts of the state. And it quickly becomes very rural. Pennsylvania also as one of the largest rural populations in the United States. And those rural areas are deeply conservative. There are some pockets of cities out Pittsburgh, out West, Harrisburg, Scranton, Erie that are still fairly Democratic. But outside of southeast Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania is a different political entity. It’s often seen as more Midwestern and its identity, while the Southeast is truly Atlantic metropolitan in its nature.

Charlotte Howard [00:05:55] So it was always clear that Pennsylvania was going to be a battleground. And then Joe Biden dropped out of the race and Harris entered the race. How did that switch affect the battle for the state?

Charlotte Howard [00:05:55] So it was always clear that Pennsylvania was going to be a battleground. And then Joe Biden dropped out of the race and Harris entered the race. How did that switch affect the battle for the state?

Christopher Borick [00:06:06] So Harris, becoming the nominee for the Democratic Party has transformed the race in Pennsylvania to a modest but important degree. If you looked at the race in late June and early July when President Biden was still the likely nominee, the race was slipping away from the Democrats. Not to an enormous point, but about 3 or 4 points on average in the polls, which is in a place like Pennsylvania. Pretty significant. Since Vice President Harris became the nominee, the race has closed in Pennsylvania. Most polls now show it as a dead heat. If you look at the averages, which largely aligns with what happened here in 2020, when Biden won by a point, Trump won by half a point four years earlier. It’s a state that’s won on last on the margins, and we seem to be in that same place again. What Harris has done to help solidify her position in the polls and make it as tight as we’ve seen is really improve upon Biden’s numbers and key constituencies within the Democratic coalition younger voters, progressive voters. She’s helped build the advantage among women to levels that mirror more of what the 2020 numbers were and where Biden was, you know, in early summer.

Christopher Borick [00:06:06] So Harris, becoming the nominee for the Democratic Party has transformed the race in Pennsylvania to a modest but important degree. If you looked at the race in late June and early July when President Biden was still the likely nominee, the race was slipping away from the Democrats. Not to an enormous point, but about 3 or 4 points on average in the polls, which is in a place like Pennsylvania. Pretty significant. Since Vice President Harris became the nominee, the race has closed in Pennsylvania. Most polls now show it as a dead heat. If you look at the averages, which largely aligns with what happened here in 2020, when Biden won by a point, Trump won by half a point four years earlier. It’s a state that’s won on last on the margins, and we seem to be in that same place again. What Harris has done to help solidify her position in the polls and make it as tight as we’ve seen is really improve upon Biden’s numbers and key constituencies within the Democratic coalition younger voters, progressive voters. She’s helped build the advantage among women to levels that mirror more of what the 2020 numbers were and where Biden was, you know, in early summer.

Charlotte Howard [00:07:19] One of the political tactics that’s been deployed, right. Is to have a strategy of trying to compete in certain counties where a given party knows that they’ll lose, but they want to lose by a smaller margin. What do you make of that this time around in Pennsylvania? And where might that be most relevant?

Charlotte Howard [00:07:19] One of the political tactics that’s been deployed, right. Is to have a strategy of trying to compete in certain counties where a given party knows that they’ll lose, but they want to lose by a smaller margin. What do you make of that this time around in Pennsylvania? And where might that be most relevant?

Christopher Borick [00:07:36] I think it is the smart strategy. As I said, Pennsylvania is so tight in terms of the election, so little gains across counties that you lose and sometimes lose significantly, but modestly improve upon can be quite impactful. When we get to the final numbers. So both parties are taking on this approach, I’ll give some tangible examples. Talking with a local radio station in the Lehigh Valley, that’s a conservative talk radio station, the news director told me, You know, Harris ran a lot of ads on our station and we’re 95% Republican, 95% Trump. Well, why would you spend money on ads of a Democrat on a station like that? You’re looking at the margin, that 5% maybe having some improvement there. Or Donald Trump, you know, in Philadelphia, putting ads on black radio, you know, stations that are overwhelmingly Democratic leaning. That’s the type of campaign that we’re seeing. You look under every stone. You try to find voters on the margin that can add up in a race that everybody knows is tight.

Christopher Borick [00:07:36] I think it is the smart strategy. As I said, Pennsylvania is so tight in terms of the election, so little gains across counties that you lose and sometimes lose significantly, but modestly improve upon can be quite impactful. When we get to the final numbers. So both parties are taking on this approach, I’ll give some tangible examples. Talking with a local radio station in the Lehigh Valley, that’s a conservative talk radio station, the news director told me, You know, Harris ran a lot of ads on our station and we’re 95% Republican, 95% Trump. Well, why would you spend money on ads of a Democrat on a station like that? You’re looking at the margin, that 5% maybe having some improvement there. Or Donald Trump, you know, in Philadelphia, putting ads on black radio, you know, stations that are overwhelmingly Democratic leaning. That’s the type of campaign that we’re seeing. You look under every stone. You try to find voters on the margin that can add up in a race that everybody knows is tight.

Charlotte Howard [00:08:41] What are the big things that you’re watching for now with just a few weeks to go? Amazingly until Election Day? What are the things you have your eye on?

Charlotte Howard [00:08:41] What are the big things that you’re watching for now with just a few weeks to go? Amazingly until Election Day? What are the things you have your eye on?

Christopher Borick [00:08:48] I’m interested in classic campaign structures and activities now in Pennsylvania. You know, you see a lot of activity on the ground and door knockers are everywhere. You walk out in the street on a weekend, you’ll see people going back and forth where I live. Trying to get out the vote and encourage that. The strategies seem different. The party strategies. Democrats, I think, are much more engaged in this outreach activity in the state, mobilising voters, making contact with voters. It’s not that Republicans aren’t doing that at all, but to a far lesser degree, and especially with the Trump campaign, which seems to have taken they say they have offices in the state. They say they’re active in this, but there’s not as much empirical proof of that. I think they’re ultimately resting on their candidate’s appeal. And so it’s a little bit of a test of those approaches and those strategies that’s playing out here. You notice that you see it in the activity that’s going on.

Christopher Borick [00:08:48] I’m interested in classic campaign structures and activities now in Pennsylvania. You know, you see a lot of activity on the ground and door knockers are everywhere. You walk out in the street on a weekend, you’ll see people going back and forth where I live. Trying to get out the vote and encourage that. The strategies seem different. The party strategies. Democrats, I think, are much more engaged in this outreach activity in the state, mobilising voters, making contact with voters. It’s not that Republicans aren’t doing that at all, but to a far lesser degree, and especially with the Trump campaign, which seems to have taken they say they have offices in the state. They say they’re active in this, but there’s not as much empirical proof of that. I think they’re ultimately resting on their candidate’s appeal. And so it’s a little bit of a test of those approaches and those strategies that’s playing out here. You notice that you see it in the activity that’s going on.

Charlotte Howard [00:09:42] Is that because the Trump campaign is just doubling down on certain areas of the state where they know they already have an advantage and it’s a turnout that not.

Charlotte Howard [00:09:42] Is that because the Trump campaign is just doubling down on certain areas of the state where they know they already have an advantage and it’s a turnout that not.

Christopher Borick [00:09:52] There certainly are ads there, certainly spending a lot of money. The former president is in the state, it seems, on a daily basis. Every few days he’s back here. But the structural aspects, the kind of organisational things that you would associate with a really major campaign in a major state don’t seem to be as present as one might envision. I think it’s a strategic choice. I don’t know if it emanates from the top, but it seems pretty visible to me as someone that’s observing the campaigns on the ground.

Christopher Borick [00:09:52] There certainly are ads there, certainly spending a lot of money. The former president is in the state, it seems, on a daily basis. Every few days he’s back here. But the structural aspects, the kind of organisational things that you would associate with a really major campaign in a major state don’t seem to be as present as one might envision. I think it’s a strategic choice. I don’t know if it emanates from the top, but it seems pretty visible to me as someone that’s observing the campaigns on the ground.

Charlotte Howard [00:10:23] Is that different than it was in 2016? 2020 is kind of a weird test case because it was Covid. But in 2016, were they following a similar strategy?

Charlotte Howard [00:10:23] Is that different than it was in 2016? 2020 is kind of a weird test case because it was Covid. But in 2016, were they following a similar strategy?

Christopher Borick [00:10:31] I mean, the difference between the Clinton campaign and the Trump campaign was significant. Now. You might argue Clinton underestimated the need to invest in Pennsylvania, both in her time and her efforts until the very end of that campaign. But you could see it that and much of that was written off to what Trump really doesn’t know how to run a campaign. He’s got a different type of campaign. And ultimately it was effective. But the organisational presence was almost nil that time around. You saw organic pieces of energy, the signs, you know, among voters, but not on a formal organisational structure. And that might be a, you know, artefact of Trump and Trump politics in the United States, that if you have an approach like that that you think ultimately is candidate centred and it could deliver, maybe you forsake some of the other things that we often think are so important in campaigns. Charlotte. There are six.

Christopher Borick [00:10:31] I mean, the difference between the Clinton campaign and the Trump campaign was significant. Now. You might argue Clinton underestimated the need to invest in Pennsylvania, both in her time and her efforts until the very end of that campaign. But you could see it that and much of that was written off to what Trump really doesn’t know how to run a campaign. He’s got a different type of campaign. And ultimately it was effective. But the organisational presence was almost nil that time around. You saw organic pieces of energy, the signs, you know, among voters, but not on a formal organisational structure. And that might be a, you know, artefact of Trump and Trump politics in the United States, that if you have an approach like that that you think ultimately is candidate centred and it could deliver, maybe you forsake some of the other things that we often think are so important in campaigns. Charlotte. There are six.

John Prideaux [00:11:29] Swing states that will determine the 2024 election. Seven if you include North Carolina. Why have we decided to go big on Pennsylvania?

John Prideaux [00:11:29] Swing states that will determine the 2024 election. Seven if you include North Carolina. Why have we decided to go big on Pennsylvania?

Charlotte Howard [00:11:37] Well, it’s a swing state where the campaigns are really running neck and neck, and it’s a swing state that has the most electoral votes. 19. To Georgia and North Carolina’s 16, which are the next biggest states. So Trump, if he can flip Pennsylvania, which voted for Biden last time, if he can flip Pennsylvania and one other big state like Georgia, he could win. And either candidate could win the presidency without winning Pennsylvania. But it’s really hard to do that. So it’s no surprise that it’s attracting a huge amount of cash and lots of visits from late September through Election Day. Groups supporting the campaigns have reserved more than $138 million in airtime in Pennsylvania. That’s more than 50% more cash than in the next closest state for big campaign spending, which is Michigan. So it’s attracting a huge amount of attention. And so when you see where campaigns are spending their time or the areas of interest, if you think about the entire state running east to west, you have Philadelphia, which is historically, of course, a Democratic stronghold. The suburbs around Philadelphia, which have leaned much more blue. Then you have the Lehigh Valley where I was, where you have Allentown, which is an increasingly Hispanic city. But the Lehigh Valley has an old industrial past. You have Northampton County, just north of Allentown, which was home to Bethlehem. Steel is a real swing county. And then you have lots of rural areas. You go further west, you get to Pittsburgh, which is the second biggest city in Pennsylvania, a Democratic stronghold, but with Republican leaning suburbs and then up to Erie in the northwest where you are. Idrees Right.

Charlotte Howard [00:11:37] Well, it’s a swing state where the campaigns are really running neck and neck, and it’s a swing state that has the most electoral votes. 19. To Georgia and North Carolina’s 16, which are the next biggest states. So Trump, if he can flip Pennsylvania, which voted for Biden last time, if he can flip Pennsylvania and one other big state like Georgia, he could win. And either candidate could win the presidency without winning Pennsylvania. But it’s really hard to do that. So it’s no surprise that it’s attracting a huge amount of cash and lots of visits from late September through Election Day. Groups supporting the campaigns have reserved more than $138 million in airtime in Pennsylvania. That’s more than 50% more cash than in the next closest state for big campaign spending, which is Michigan. So it’s attracting a huge amount of attention. And so when you see where campaigns are spending their time or the areas of interest, if you think about the entire state running east to west, you have Philadelphia, which is historically, of course, a Democratic stronghold. The suburbs around Philadelphia, which have leaned much more blue. Then you have the Lehigh Valley where I was, where you have Allentown, which is an increasingly Hispanic city. But the Lehigh Valley has an old industrial past. You have Northampton County, just north of Allentown, which was home to Bethlehem. Steel is a real swing county. And then you have lots of rural areas. You go further west, you get to Pittsburgh, which is the second biggest city in Pennsylvania, a Democratic stronghold, but with Republican leaning suburbs and then up to Erie in the northwest where you are. Idrees Right.

Idrees Kahloon [00:13:20] Yes, I went to Erie, which is a very beautiful corner of Pennsylvania, right on the Great Lake. And there, too, you hear very similar points being made about where Harris is. She has some offices there and where Trump isn’t. So he’s still relying on a lot of in-person visits. He visited Erie last weekend. He’s going back to Butler, Pennsylvania, this weekend, which is, of course, where he nearly lost his life. So I think that’ll be quite a rally to see. It makes sense that a lot of Trump in particular and Harris are both spending time in Pennsylvania. For our model I think there’s about a 3 in 10 chance that it’s the tipping point state that decides who the next president is going to be. So that’s why they’re spending so much time there. In Trump’s case, if he wins Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina, he would have to 70. So that would be a pathway for him to win. That probably is the most natural pathway for Harris. If she wins Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin and keeps Nebraska, too. I think she also gets to 70. So both of them, you know, have a very reliable path that goes through Pennsylvania, which is why they’re spending as much time there as they are.

Idrees Kahloon [00:13:20] Yes, I went to Erie, which is a very beautiful corner of Pennsylvania, right on the Great Lake. And there, too, you hear very similar points being made about where Harris is. She has some offices there and where Trump isn’t. So he’s still relying on a lot of in-person visits. He visited Erie last weekend. He’s going back to Butler, Pennsylvania, this weekend, which is, of course, where he nearly lost his life. So I think that’ll be quite a rally to see. It makes sense that a lot of Trump in particular and Harris are both spending time in Pennsylvania. For our model I think there’s about a 3 in 10 chance that it’s the tipping point state that decides who the next president is going to be. So that’s why they’re spending so much time there. In Trump’s case, if he wins Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina, he would have to 70. So that would be a pathway for him to win. That probably is the most natural pathway for Harris. If she wins Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin and keeps Nebraska, too. I think she also gets to 70. So both of them, you know, have a very reliable path that goes through Pennsylvania, which is why they’re spending as much time there as they are.

John Prideaux [00:14:30] And the reason Pennsylvania is a swing state, of course, is not that it’s perfectly representative of the country as a whole. It’s because it’s a few clicks to the right of America. And you see that reflected in the demography. It’s a bit older than the country as a whole. So 20% of the population of Pennsylvania is 65 years or older versus 17.7% or 18% of America as a whole. And it’s a smidgen poorer than the country as a whole. So the median household income in Pennsylvania is about $74,000 versus $78,000 in the rest of the country. It’s a bit whiter than America as a whole. And all these things help to Pennsylvania, a couple of percentage points to the right politically, to the right of the nation, politically. And that’s why it’s such a bellwether. I mean, were the Electoral College perfectly representative of the country as a whole than the fact that Harris is clearly ahead in the popular vote would lead our model to make her a heavier favourite than she is. As it is, it’s pretty much 5050 and our model. Charlotte, What are the key issues in Pennsylvania and do they differ from those in the country as a whole?

John Prideaux [00:14:30] And the reason Pennsylvania is a swing state, of course, is not that it’s perfectly representative of the country as a whole. It’s because it’s a few clicks to the right of America. And you see that reflected in the demography. It’s a bit older than the country as a whole. So 20% of the population of Pennsylvania is 65 years or older versus 17.7% or 18% of America as a whole. And it’s a smidgen poorer than the country as a whole. So the median household income in Pennsylvania is about $74,000 versus $78,000 in the rest of the country. It’s a bit whiter than America as a whole. And all these things help to Pennsylvania, a couple of percentage points to the right politically, to the right of the nation, politically. And that’s why it’s such a bellwether. I mean, were the Electoral College perfectly representative of the country as a whole than the fact that Harris is clearly ahead in the popular vote would lead our model to make her a heavier favourite than she is. As it is, it’s pretty much 5050 and our model. Charlotte, What are the key issues in Pennsylvania and do they differ from those in the country as a whole?

Charlotte Howard [00:15:41] Yes or no in that the economy is very much the top issue in Pennsylvania. And immigration, which is another big issue nationally, is slightly less important than Pennsylvania, but it really is the economy where each campaign needs to try to win over voters. And Northampton, which I mentioned earlier and which we have covered in The Economist itself. It’s really a bellwether county near Allentown. It’s in the Lehigh Valley. It went for Obama twice, then for Trump, then back to Biden. And I thought it was kind of an interesting window into the challenge for Democrats on messaging here. So Northampton has a history as a manufacturing centre. Bethlehem is in the bottom of this pretty valley. I don’t know if you are there, if you drove past it on your trips, but you look down into Bethlehem and you see the old smokestacks of Bethlehem Steel rising up, it feels like the visual equivalent of a church spire and an English village and manufacture. Shrink continues to be treated with this kind of religious reverence. And if you look at the state more broadly, the idea that you would let U.S. Steel, which is headquartered in Pittsburgh, where Idrees was, be sold to Nippon, a Japanese company, continues to be treated with a kind of blasphemy. Biden opposes that sale of U.S. Steel to Nippon. But in Bethlehem itself, it’s not the case anymore that it’s some kind of desolate place that never recovered from post-industrial woes. Pittsburgh similarly has huge economy based on its educational and health care institutions. And in and in Northampton, the region has had other growth, not to the same extent as Pittsburgh, but certainly in health care and education and also in logistics. So it’s not like it’s an overly depressed place, but it still is a place that is in transition. Right. And like many other regions, is keen to see additional investment. Its voters want to see inflation subside. It has been the beneficiary of some Biden policies to help for clean energy infrastructure, but it’s kind of hard to make that messaging land a when those projects haven’t been built yet, and B where inflation continues to be the real economic force that voters feel on a daily basis. So the Biden policies feel more theoretical. And the inflation that you see at the grocery store at the pump feels very real. And I was talking to one Democratic official who was talking a little bit about the challenge of putting the economic message into sound bites for the Democrats. And it’s it’s just hard to do really well. You know, you hear Democrats talking about greed, inflation as the reason why inflation is high, trying to blame companies for this. I don’t know that that really lands. I think Trump has an easier job in just saying it’s Biden’s fault.

Charlotte Howard [00:15:41] Yes or no in that the economy is very much the top issue in Pennsylvania. And immigration, which is another big issue nationally, is slightly less important than Pennsylvania, but it really is the economy where each campaign needs to try to win over voters. And Northampton, which I mentioned earlier and which we have covered in The Economist itself. It’s really a bellwether county near Allentown. It’s in the Lehigh Valley. It went for Obama twice, then for Trump, then back to Biden. And I thought it was kind of an interesting window into the challenge for Democrats on messaging here. So Northampton has a history as a manufacturing centre. Bethlehem is in the bottom of this pretty valley. I don’t know if you are there, if you drove past it on your trips, but you look down into Bethlehem and you see the old smokestacks of Bethlehem Steel rising up, it feels like the visual equivalent of a church spire and an English village and manufacture. Shrink continues to be treated with this kind of religious reverence. And if you look at the state more broadly, the idea that you would let U.S. Steel, which is headquartered in Pittsburgh, where Idrees was, be sold to Nippon, a Japanese company, continues to be treated with a kind of blasphemy. Biden opposes that sale of U.S. Steel to Nippon. But in Bethlehem itself, it’s not the case anymore that it’s some kind of desolate place that never recovered from post-industrial woes. Pittsburgh similarly has huge economy based on its educational and health care institutions. And in and in Northampton, the region has had other growth, not to the same extent as Pittsburgh, but certainly in health care and education and also in logistics. So it’s not like it’s an overly depressed place, but it still is a place that is in transition. Right. And like many other regions, is keen to see additional investment. Its voters want to see inflation subside. It has been the beneficiary of some Biden policies to help for clean energy infrastructure, but it’s kind of hard to make that messaging land a when those projects haven’t been built yet, and B where inflation continues to be the real economic force that voters feel on a daily basis. So the Biden policies feel more theoretical. And the inflation that you see at the grocery store at the pump feels very real. And I was talking to one Democratic official who was talking a little bit about the challenge of putting the economic message into sound bites for the Democrats. And it’s it’s just hard to do really well. You know, you hear Democrats talking about greed, inflation as the reason why inflation is high, trying to blame companies for this. I don’t know that that really lands. I think Trump has an easier job in just saying it’s Biden’s fault.

John Prideaux [00:18:30] Okay. Next, we’ll go to a more rural part of the commonwealth. And I’ll tell you guys about my trip to Trump country. But before we do that, Charlotte and Idrees, what have you particularly enjoyed from The Economist’s recent coverage? Perhaps enjoyed isn’t the right word given how much turbulence there is in the world at the moment. But in any case, what would you recommend to our readers and listeners?

John Prideaux [00:18:30] Okay. Next, we’ll go to a more rural part of the commonwealth. And I’ll tell you guys about my trip to Trump country. But before we do that, Charlotte and Idrees, what have you particularly enjoyed from The Economist’s recent coverage? Perhaps enjoyed isn’t the right word given how much turbulence there is in the world at the moment. But in any case, what would you recommend to our readers and listeners?

Charlotte Howard [00:18:50] The cover of The Economist this week is on the year that shattered the Middle East and includes all kinds of coverage from our colleagues covering both the current escalating conflict and explaining how the region more broadly has has changed over the past year. It’s excellent.

Charlotte Howard [00:18:50] The cover of The Economist this week is on the year that shattered the Middle East and includes all kinds of coverage from our colleagues covering both the current escalating conflict and explaining how the region more broadly has has changed over the past year. It’s excellent.

Idrees Kahloon [00:19:06] I liked our long piece about the new Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba who’s going to be taking over pretty soon. Who’s going to have to deal with a new American president is a little bit more of a defence hawk. It was a good introduction to him and the issues that he’ll be facing soon.

Idrees Kahloon [00:19:06] I liked our long piece about the new Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba who’s going to be taking over pretty soon. Who’s going to have to deal with a new American president is a little bit more of a defence hawk. It was a good introduction to him and the issues that he’ll be facing soon.

John Prideaux [00:19:31] Next up, I took a trip to the far northeast of Pennsylvania. The eighth Congressional District borders the states of New York and New Jersey. And I went there to find out how the Republican Party is approaching this election in. I’m at the cross street of Adams and Baker Street in downtown Scranton, Pennsylvania. Having driven on the President Joe Biden Highway to get here, this is an area that is closely associated with the sitting president, but it’s in Pennsylvania’s eighth Congressional district. Pennsylvania eighth is a classic Obama to Trump district. So in 2012, Barack Obama with Joe Biden as vice president, won this district by 12 points or less. And then in 2016 there was a huge swing towards Donald Trump. He won it by 9.6. In 2020, Donald Trump won again, but the margin was much closer, 2.9 points. So if Kamala Harris and Tim Waltz are to win Pennsylvania, they need to get closer to Joe Biden’s result in 2020. Then to Hillary Clinton’s results in 2016. This is an area that used to be an industrial area. It is whiter than America. On average, it is slightly less educated. And there’s a bit of a sense that it’s an area that’s been in decline economically. And so for all of those reasons, it is Trump. Donald Trump is going to win here on November the 5th. The question is, how big will the margin be? Pennsylvania eight is unusual because despite having been won by Donald Trump. It’s still represented by Democrats in the House of Representatives.

John Prideaux [00:19:31] Next up, I took a trip to the far northeast of Pennsylvania. The eighth Congressional District borders the states of New York and New Jersey. And I went there to find out how the Republican Party is approaching this election in. I’m at the cross street of Adams and Baker Street in downtown Scranton, Pennsylvania. Having driven on the President Joe Biden Highway to get here, this is an area that is closely associated with the sitting president, but it’s in Pennsylvania’s eighth Congressional district. Pennsylvania eighth is a classic Obama to Trump district. So in 2012, Barack Obama with Joe Biden as vice president, won this district by 12 points or less. And then in 2016 there was a huge swing towards Donald Trump. He won it by 9.6. In 2020, Donald Trump won again, but the margin was much closer, 2.9 points. So if Kamala Harris and Tim Waltz are to win Pennsylvania, they need to get closer to Joe Biden’s result in 2020. Then to Hillary Clinton’s results in 2016. This is an area that used to be an industrial area. It is whiter than America. On average, it is slightly less educated. And there’s a bit of a sense that it’s an area that’s been in decline economically. And so for all of those reasons, it is Trump. Donald Trump is going to win here on November the 5th. The question is, how big will the margin be? Pennsylvania eight is unusual because despite having been won by Donald Trump. It’s still represented by Democrats in the House of Representatives.

Archive [00:21:22] This race is going to be fast. There’s no money out there.

Archive [00:21:22] This race is going to be fast. There’s no money out there.

John Prideaux [00:21:27] So Republicans are aggressively targeting this seat as a campaign event. Lou Barletta, a former congressman with teeth so white, they have their own parody account on X. Warmed up the crowd when he was in office. He had made immigration his signature issue. And now he had a sense of vindication.

John Prideaux [00:21:27] So Republicans are aggressively targeting this seat as a campaign event. Lou Barletta, a former congressman with teeth so white, they have their own parody account on X. Warmed up the crowd when he was in office. He had made immigration his signature issue. And now he had a sense of vindication.

Archive [00:21:47] That no, no, was the canary in the mines telling everybody what was going to happen. And well, look at what’s happened. The Democrats want them. They want open borders. They want people to come and take American citizens because they don’t care.

Archive [00:21:47] That no, no, was the canary in the mines telling everybody what was going to happen. And well, look at what’s happened. The Democrats want them. They want open borders. They want people to come and take American citizens because they don’t care.

John Prideaux [00:22:03] Immigration is still relatively low in this part of Pennsylvania. The population is up ever so slightly since the pandemic, but that came after decades of decline. But still, talking about immigration works. One other attack line cut through to the crowd.

John Prideaux [00:22:03] Immigration is still relatively low in this part of Pennsylvania. The population is up ever so slightly since the pandemic, but that came after decades of decline. But still, talking about immigration works. One other attack line cut through to the crowd.

Archive [00:22:20] They’re okay with boys competing against girls in sports. They don’t care that a boy feels like he’s a girl. Today he can walk into a girl’s bathroom. That is not who we are here. The Republican now.

Archive [00:22:20] They’re okay with boys competing against girls in sports. They don’t care that a boy feels like he’s a girl. Today he can walk into a girl’s bathroom. That is not who we are here. The Republican now.

John Prideaux [00:22:33] Running for the seat is a 34 year old political newcomer, Robert Bresnahan. He’s a local son who inherited his family’s construction business. In all his messaging, he emphasises his political moderation.

John Prideaux [00:22:33] Running for the seat is a 34 year old political newcomer, Robert Bresnahan. He’s a local son who inherited his family’s construction business. In all his messaging, he emphasises his political moderation.

Archive [00:22:46] Because I’m not a threat to Pennsylvania. Mean, I’m not going to cut Social Security. I wasn’t handed anything. I was born here. I was raised here. I re-invested here. I created jobs here.

Archive [00:22:46] Because I’m not a threat to Pennsylvania. Mean, I’m not going to cut Social Security. I wasn’t handed anything. I was born here. I was raised here. I re-invested here. I created jobs here.

John Prideaux [00:22:58] In his ads and pamphlets. Bresnahan is keen to mention those are union jobs he created.

John Prideaux [00:22:58] In his ads and pamphlets. Bresnahan is keen to mention those are union jobs he created.

Archive [00:23:04] And I’m running against the guy who votes for Joe Biden nearly 100% of the time. AOC 95% of the time, you can’t say that you represent poor Eastern Pennsylvania with a voting record like this. 20 years ago, he voted against the gas powered vehicles. He wants to tell us that we have to drive electric vehicles. Hey, listen, if you want an electric vehicle, I’m all for it. Drive it. But I don’t want to be told that that’s what I have to.

Archive [00:23:04] And I’m running against the guy who votes for Joe Biden nearly 100% of the time. AOC 95% of the time, you can’t say that you represent poor Eastern Pennsylvania with a voting record like this. 20 years ago, he voted against the gas powered vehicles. He wants to tell us that we have to drive electric vehicles. Hey, listen, if you want an electric vehicle, I’m all for it. Drive it. But I don’t want to be told that that’s what I have to.

John Prideaux [00:23:34] What Bresnahan didn’t mention. Even in this room of Republican faithful, he chose to come to an event. On a drizzly Wednesday night was Donald Trump. There were a few digs at Kamala Harris, but otherwise the presidential race was absent. That’s not to say Trump doesn’t have a base of support here. I also spoke with T.J Fitzgerald, who runs a grassroots Republican organisation in Luzerne, one of the counties that includes he says he’s not sure he ever even voted before 2016.

John Prideaux [00:23:34] What Bresnahan didn’t mention. Even in this room of Republican faithful, he chose to come to an event. On a drizzly Wednesday night was Donald Trump. There were a few digs at Kamala Harris, but otherwise the presidential race was absent. That’s not to say Trump doesn’t have a base of support here. I also spoke with T.J Fitzgerald, who runs a grassroots Republican organisation in Luzerne, one of the counties that includes he says he’s not sure he ever even voted before 2016.

Archive [00:24:06] Finally, we have a business person that’s going to run the country like a business and both sides hate him. The elitist from the Republican Party and the Democrat Party. Everybody with power. Everybody that has millions hated him. Kind of like Jesus. Kind of funny, isn’t it? Kind of like everybody else. Like Mandela, like Rosa Parks. Like every other person that wants a change, like Lincoln Fitzgerald.

Archive [00:24:06] Finally, we have a business person that’s going to run the country like a business and both sides hate him. The elitist from the Republican Party and the Democrat Party. Everybody with power. Everybody that has millions hated him. Kind of like Jesus. Kind of funny, isn’t it? Kind of like everybody else. Like Mandela, like Rosa Parks. Like every other person that wants a change, like Lincoln Fitzgerald.

John Prideaux [00:24:34] Is obviously passionate. You can hear him hitting the table as he talks. His organisation is doing the kind of small bore work, organising door knocking and registering voters that can add up in close races. But his story also Says something about how, despite all the polarisation in America, everyone has individual reasons for holding the political views they do.

John Prideaux [00:24:34] Is obviously passionate. You can hear him hitting the table as he talks. His organisation is doing the kind of small bore work, organising door knocking and registering voters that can add up in close races. But his story also Says something about how, despite all the polarisation in America, everyone has individual reasons for holding the political views they do.

Archive [00:24:57] That’s how I got involved with politics, is that I realised that people don’t have a voice and the people in government, whether it’s Democrat or Republican, they really don’t. They pass over the common person and, and they hurt people and I am fighting for them. That’s what got me involved.

Archive [00:24:57] That’s how I got involved with politics, is that I realised that people don’t have a voice and the people in government, whether it’s Democrat or Republican, they really don’t. They pass over the common person and, and they hurt people and I am fighting for them. That’s what got me involved.

John Prideaux [00:25:18] He’s also organising poll watchers because he’s concerned about the integrity of the vote. He’s testified to Congress about Republican claims that there were issues with the vote in Pennsylvania in 2020. For him. The stakes seem existential.

John Prideaux [00:25:18] He’s also organising poll watchers because he’s concerned about the integrity of the vote. He’s testified to Congress about Republican claims that there were issues with the vote in Pennsylvania in 2020. For him. The stakes seem existential.

Archive [00:25:32] And right now, if we don’t. When? I believe we’re going to have a fascist state. Like Hillary said, she wants to put us in jail. She said that there’s a big move in the Democrat Party to take our First Amendment right, and then if they own everything, if they win, they have the CIA, the FBI, they have everything they have said. That they want to put us in camps. Videos showed Shodan. And I’m afraid so, because I want to have a free country. I want to tell people that this vote matters and to keep freedom, we need to win.

Archive [00:25:32] And right now, if we don’t. When? I believe we’re going to have a fascist state. Like Hillary said, she wants to put us in jail. She said that there’s a big move in the Democrat Party to take our First Amendment right, and then if they own everything, if they win, they have the CIA, the FBI, they have everything they have said. That they want to put us in camps. Videos showed Shodan. And I’m afraid so, because I want to have a free country. I want to tell people that this vote matters and to keep freedom, we need to win.

John Prideaux [00:26:16] Lots of Trump supporters are genuinely scared about what happens if their man loses. And if he does lose For T.J. Fitzgerald, it will be because those elites found a way to pass over and to hurt the common person once again. Idrees talking to T.J. Fitzgerald for me was a reminder that there are things that are axiomatically true on the right like that. Hillary Clinton wants to put Trump supporters in camps or that people in Springfield are eating pads that people on the left or who pay attention to mainstream media in America are just completely unaware of. So do you know what that’s a reference to?

John Prideaux [00:26:16] Lots of Trump supporters are genuinely scared about what happens if their man loses. And if he does lose For T.J. Fitzgerald, it will be because those elites found a way to pass over and to hurt the common person once again. Idrees talking to T.J. Fitzgerald for me was a reminder that there are things that are axiomatically true on the right like that. Hillary Clinton wants to put Trump supporters in camps or that people in Springfield are eating pads that people on the left or who pay attention to mainstream media in America are just completely unaware of. So do you know what that’s a reference to?

Idrees Kahloon [00:26:56] Yeah. About two weeks ago, Hillary Clinton went on MSNBC and gave an interview and she had a comment on misinformation that a lot of people in the conservative news environment really were outraged by. And I think that’s what you’re you’re hearing, although the call for camps I think is new, at least to me. What she said in that interview was that the Russians had interfered in the election in 2016. And then this is her full quote. She said, quote, I also think there are Americans who are engaged in this kind of propaganda and whether they should be civilly or even in some cases criminally charged is something that would be a better deterrence because the Russians are unlikely, except in a very few cases, to ever stand trial in the United States. So that is what got lots of people irate, and that is filtered down, as you can see to people who are actively campaigning in Pennsylvania.

Idrees Kahloon [00:26:56] Yeah. About two weeks ago, Hillary Clinton went on MSNBC and gave an interview and she had a comment on misinformation that a lot of people in the conservative news environment really were outraged by. And I think that’s what you’re you’re hearing, although the call for camps I think is new, at least to me. What she said in that interview was that the Russians had interfered in the election in 2016. And then this is her full quote. She said, quote, I also think there are Americans who are engaged in this kind of propaganda and whether they should be civilly or even in some cases criminally charged is something that would be a better deterrence because the Russians are unlikely, except in a very few cases, to ever stand trial in the United States. So that is what got lots of people irate, and that is filtered down, as you can see to people who are actively campaigning in Pennsylvania.

Charlotte Howard [00:27:46] One thing that I think I struggle with a bit is that every coalition, every political party, has people within it who say things that sound. Strange and not entirely connected to reality. And so trying to decipher what is the. Fringe person talking about a given issue and how closely that person’s views are aligned with the policies of whoever it is they support. So whether it’s Trump himself or J.D. Vance or someone running for Congress, I think that that’s an important exercise to do in exploring the political landscape of a given place. So, John, how do you think about that in this context?

Charlotte Howard [00:27:46] One thing that I think I struggle with a bit is that every coalition, every political party, has people within it who say things that sound. Strange and not entirely connected to reality. And so trying to decipher what is the. Fringe person talking about a given issue and how closely that person’s views are aligned with the policies of whoever it is they support. So whether it’s Trump himself or J.D. Vance or someone running for Congress, I think that that’s an important exercise to do in exploring the political landscape of a given place. So, John, how do you think about that in this context?

John Prideaux [00:28:37] Well, the thing that really struck me on that is the distance between what the guy running for Congress and a competitive district is saying in his messaging. And when you go and talk to Trump activists how they view things. So the real president is running in a competitive district. His messaging is much more moderate. He presents himself as a moderate. You heard there in that little clip at the event we went to, he was saying, I’m all for electric cars. People can drive them if they want to. That’s great. But what I don’t want is the government telling me that I must drive one. That’s quite a clever position because it both keeps Republicans and the base happy. But it also says, Hey, I get that climate change is a thing and maybe electric cars are good. Most obviously he didn’t mention Trump at all, which is pretty striking. But then if you go and talk to local Republican activists and as you say, they’re not always a completely representative tribe, though, T.J. Fitzgerald, it’s worth underlining, did testify to Congress about, you know, Republican allegations of election fraud in Pennsylvania back in 2020. But among them, the level of threat they feel from Democrats is just incredibly high and they love Donald Trump. And then I guess the last thing I’d say on that is whenever you talk to voters or political activists, the reasons why they hold their views are pretty complicated and don’t fit in necessarily to the needs stories we tell ourselves about polarisation. So there was one guy I talked to is a Trump activist who was really cross because I’m just going to try and get this right. A bit of forest near where he lives has been cleared in order to put solar panels up, he said. So that’s that’s bad enough. It’s the Federal Government deforesting his neighbourhood in order to put solar panels up. But more than that, these solar panels had displaced some local bears. So he was now worried that he and his neighbours were going to get eaten by the bears. So, you know, not only is Kamala Harris a threat to democracy, but her environmental policy is a direct threat to the to the lives of him and his neighbours.

John Prideaux [00:28:37] Well, the thing that really struck me on that is the distance between what the guy running for Congress and a competitive district is saying in his messaging. And when you go and talk to Trump activists how they view things. So the real president is running in a competitive district. His messaging is much more moderate. He presents himself as a moderate. You heard there in that little clip at the event we went to, he was saying, I’m all for electric cars. People can drive them if they want to. That’s great. But what I don’t want is the government telling me that I must drive one. That’s quite a clever position because it both keeps Republicans and the base happy. But it also says, Hey, I get that climate change is a thing and maybe electric cars are good. Most obviously he didn’t mention Trump at all, which is pretty striking. But then if you go and talk to local Republican activists and as you say, they’re not always a completely representative tribe, though, T.J. Fitzgerald, it’s worth underlining, did testify to Congress about, you know, Republican allegations of election fraud in Pennsylvania back in 2020. But among them, the level of threat they feel from Democrats is just incredibly high and they love Donald Trump. And then I guess the last thing I’d say on that is whenever you talk to voters or political activists, the reasons why they hold their views are pretty complicated and don’t fit in necessarily to the needs stories we tell ourselves about polarisation. So there was one guy I talked to is a Trump activist who was really cross because I’m just going to try and get this right. A bit of forest near where he lives has been cleared in order to put solar panels up, he said. So that’s that’s bad enough. It’s the Federal Government deforesting his neighbourhood in order to put solar panels up. But more than that, these solar panels had displaced some local bears. So he was now worried that he and his neighbours were going to get eaten by the bears. So, you know, not only is Kamala Harris a threat to democracy, but her environmental policy is a direct threat to the to the lives of him and his neighbours.

Charlotte Howard [00:30:38] So I guess the phenomenon that you just explained in my mind points to, I think, some of the strangeness of this election, right? Because I think someone who’s going to blame Kamala Harris for bears marauding through the streets, I mean, they’re that person is going to blame Harris for anything, I think. Right. And for political candidates probably on both sides of this race. Right. The challenge is not alienating the real diehards and encouraging them to turn out and not alienating the swing voters, of which there are some who will make a difference in Pennsylvania. I am struck by how the broader issues of election integrity, which Idrees covered so well in a recent cover story, are playing out in Pennsylvania. These are very active issues in the courts, too.

Charlotte Howard [00:30:38] So I guess the phenomenon that you just explained in my mind points to, I think, some of the strangeness of this election, right? Because I think someone who’s going to blame Kamala Harris for bears marauding through the streets, I mean, they’re that person is going to blame Harris for anything, I think. Right. And for political candidates probably on both sides of this race. Right. The challenge is not alienating the real diehards and encouraging them to turn out and not alienating the swing voters, of which there are some who will make a difference in Pennsylvania. I am struck by how the broader issues of election integrity, which Idrees covered so well in a recent cover story, are playing out in Pennsylvania. These are very active issues in the courts, too.

John Prideaux [00:31:29] They are And that was another thing I was keen to understand when I was there, how Republican voters, how Republican activists think about the fairness of the election system in Pennsylvania. My impression was the views of the people I was talking to were a bit shaped by the fact that they were talking to an outsider with a funny accent. And when I asked about whether the result in 2020 would be trustworthy, whether they would accept it if Kamala Harris won, most didn’t want to say outright, no, we wouldn’t. That 2020 was stolen. You know, they didn’t sound full on Stop the steal in a Rudy Giuliani manner. What they do do is just raise questions and doubts. And I think the truth is the system for electing presidents in America and in Pennsylvania.

John Prideaux [00:31:29] They are And that was another thing I was keen to understand when I was there, how Republican voters, how Republican activists think about the fairness of the election system in Pennsylvania. My impression was the views of the people I was talking to were a bit shaped by the fact that they were talking to an outsider with a funny accent. And when I asked about whether the result in 2020 would be trustworthy, whether they would accept it if Kamala Harris won, most didn’t want to say outright, no, we wouldn’t. That 2020 was stolen. You know, they didn’t sound full on Stop the steal in a Rudy Giuliani manner. What they do do is just raise questions and doubts. And I think the truth is the system for electing presidents in America and in Pennsylvania.

John Prideaux [00:32:18] It’s pretty.

John Prideaux [00:32:18] Complicated. You know, each county has different rules. The way American states run the registers of voters is a bit complicated compared with other countries. So it does seem like, as Idrees wrote in his excellent cover story, this is a question of a complicated system that’s hard to understand. Meeting a group of people who are primed to not trust it and that that’s a pretty bad recipe.

John Prideaux [00:32:18] Complicated. You know, each county has different rules. The way American states run the registers of voters is a bit complicated compared with other countries. So it does seem like, as Idrees wrote in his excellent cover story, this is a question of a complicated system that’s hard to understand. Meeting a group of people who are primed to not trust it and that that’s a pretty bad recipe.

Idrees Kahloon [00:32:44] Well, I think if Trump wins, all of these doubts will be gone. So, you know, that’s why there’s some hedging. It will only take place if Harris wins. And unfortunately, I think that there are rules in Pennsylvania that are actual breeding grounds for, you know, misinformation and doubt. You know, Pennsylvania doesn’t allow mail in ballots to be counted. So that creates this perception that on Election Day, because Republicans are more likely to turn out that. The count starts red and it gets progressively bluer, that that’s a big conspiracy kind of breeding ground.

Idrees Kahloon [00:32:44] Well, I think if Trump wins, all of these doubts will be gone. So, you know, that’s why there’s some hedging. It will only take place if Harris wins. And unfortunately, I think that there are rules in Pennsylvania that are actual breeding grounds for, you know, misinformation and doubt. You know, Pennsylvania doesn’t allow mail in ballots to be counted. So that creates this perception that on Election Day, because Republicans are more likely to turn out that. The count starts red and it gets progressively bluer, that that’s a big conspiracy kind of breeding ground.

John Prideaux [00:33:17] Yeah, I think that’s right. I did talk to an election administrator in one of the counties in Ed, and she seemed very confident that the election would go smoothly. She thought that they were well prepared, that the count would happen promptly. She was spending a lot of time trying to communicate this to Republican voters in particular, and I think having a difficult time with that. All right. We’ll be back in a moment here about Idrees, his tour of beautiful western Pennsylvania. Idrees to finish up our trifecta of Pennsylvania road trips. You’ve been to its western edges.

John Prideaux [00:33:17] Yeah, I think that’s right. I did talk to an election administrator in one of the counties in Ed, and she seemed very confident that the election would go smoothly. She thought that they were well prepared, that the count would happen promptly. She was spending a lot of time trying to communicate this to Republican voters in particular, and I think having a difficult time with that. All right. We’ll be back in a moment here about Idrees, his tour of beautiful western Pennsylvania. Idrees to finish up our trifecta of Pennsylvania road trips. You’ve been to its western edges.

Idrees Kahloon [00:34:01] Yeah, that’s right. I went back to Pittsburgh, where I spent a fond summer when I was in college, and now I’m back reporting. So that was fun. One of the first stops was with a Harris campaigner named Brie Erskine. She very politely let me shadow her as she canvassed in the borough of Bellevue, which is in the western part of Pennsylvania. And we talked on a busy road on a rainy day.

Idrees Kahloon [00:34:01] Yeah, that’s right. I went back to Pittsburgh, where I spent a fond summer when I was in college, and now I’m back reporting. So that was fun. One of the first stops was with a Harris campaigner named Brie Erskine. She very politely let me shadow her as she canvassed in the borough of Bellevue, which is in the western part of Pennsylvania. And we talked on a busy road on a rainy day.

Archive [00:34:26] So Bellevue is a pretty working class neighbourhood right outside of Pittsburgh. And literally one bridge outside the city. Technically, I am, but it’s definitely a place that has seen a kind of an increase in people wanting to live here.

Archive [00:34:26] So Bellevue is a pretty working class neighbourhood right outside of Pittsburgh. And literally one bridge outside the city. Technically, I am, but it’s definitely a place that has seen a kind of an increase in people wanting to live here.

Idrees Kahloon [00:34:41] And so it seems like a lot of the people here are voting for Harris.

Idrees Kahloon [00:34:41] And so it seems like a lot of the people here are voting for Harris.

Idrees Kahloon [00:34:46] Or say that they will. And I guess your job is to make sure that they actually turn out to vote.

Idrees Kahloon [00:34:46] Or say that they will. And I guess your job is to make sure that they actually turn out to vote.

Archive [00:34:53] Yes. You can’t take for granted that people are going to be able to get out on Election Day. Right. Or they’re going to be able to get off work if they’re going to have to make people pick out their food. So checking in with folks, giving them that nudge reminder to make a plan can be really helpful.

Archive [00:34:53] Yes. You can’t take for granted that people are going to be able to get out on Election Day. Right. Or they’re going to be able to get off work if they’re going to have to make people pick out their food. So checking in with folks, giving them that nudge reminder to make a plan can be really helpful.

Idrees Kahloon [00:35:07] And what’s your sense of why people here are voting for Harris?

Idrees Kahloon [00:35:07] And what’s your sense of why people here are voting for Harris?

Archive [00:35:14] The question. I think she is representative of them. I think coming from a middle class family, being able to go to law school. Right. I think that’s the American dream, right? Her parents are immigrants, can work hard and give an opportunity. But. I don’t think people have given up on that dream, and I think they can see themselves in her in that. I also think, you know, they’re simple math, right? Her plans make sense. I think when they see somebody like Kamala, they see somebody who means what they say. But I think specifically here, people, I think it goes back to opportunity. People want to I don’t think anybody wants their children have less opportunity than what they had.

Archive [00:35:14] The question. I think she is representative of them. I think coming from a middle class family, being able to go to law school. Right. I think that’s the American dream, right? Her parents are immigrants, can work hard and give an opportunity. But. I don’t think people have given up on that dream, and I think they can see themselves in her in that. I also think, you know, they’re simple math, right? Her plans make sense. I think when they see somebody like Kamala, they see somebody who means what they say. But I think specifically here, people, I think it goes back to opportunity. People want to I don’t think anybody wants their children have less opportunity than what they had.

Archive [00:36:07] Democrat Chris de Lucio represents Pennsylvania’s 17th congressional district that takes in Pittsburgh’s suburbs. Some of them are wealthier, some of them working class. Joe Biden won that district in 2020, but it’s a much tougher place for Democrats to win than the centre of the city. When we met in an office in a union hall after Dilulio had just delivered remarks before retired educators, he told me what he was hearing from voters.

Archive [00:36:07] Democrat Chris de Lucio represents Pennsylvania’s 17th congressional district that takes in Pittsburgh’s suburbs. Some of them are wealthier, some of them working class. Joe Biden won that district in 2020, but it’s a much tougher place for Democrats to win than the centre of the city. When we met in an office in a union hall after Dilulio had just delivered remarks before retired educators, he told me what he was hearing from voters.

Archive [00:36:33] Costs are on folks minds. I think they’re mad about corporate price gouging and the way that some of these executives brag about it. People want our democracy to be functional and normal and healthy and not something they have to worry about. No one wants to think about a candidate like Donald Trump trying to overthrow the Constitution and doing what he did on January 6th. They don’t want to have abortion rights ripped away. Most people the overwhelming majority of my constituents don’t think this is something the government ought to be interfering in. And I think people just want to have secure, prosperous, normal lives without wacky, extreme stuff like you hear out of Trump and a lot of the right wing Republicans these days, I think they just want a normal, healthy, strong democracy and a government that serves them well.

Archive [00:36:33] Costs are on folks minds. I think they’re mad about corporate price gouging and the way that some of these executives brag about it. People want our democracy to be functional and normal and healthy and not something they have to worry about. No one wants to think about a candidate like Donald Trump trying to overthrow the Constitution and doing what he did on January 6th. They don’t want to have abortion rights ripped away. Most people the overwhelming majority of my constituents don’t think this is something the government ought to be interfering in. And I think people just want to have secure, prosperous, normal lives without wacky, extreme stuff like you hear out of Trump and a lot of the right wing Republicans these days, I think they just want a normal, healthy, strong democracy and a government that serves them well.

Idrees Kahloon [00:37:24] There’s this growing diploma divide In America where College educated voters are increasingly gravitating towards Democrat Party, and those without advanced degrees are increasingly gravitatin The Republican Party is kind of reversing The polarity that existed for a while. You can’t win a district Like yours With just college educated voters, Right? How do you kind of fight against that current, if you will, the facts to Support your voice And you know what? How do you deal with it?

Idrees Kahloon [00:37:24] There’s this growing diploma divide In America where College educated voters are increasingly gravitating towards Democrat Party, and those without advanced degrees are increasingly gravitatin The Republican Party is kind of reversing The polarity that existed for a while. You can’t win a district Like yours With just college educated voters, Right? How do you kind of fight against that current, if you will, the facts to Support your voice And you know what? How do you deal with it?

Archive [00:37:54] Democrats like me have been doing battle with the exact kind of voters you’re asking about and say 2016. I think that is a result and a reflection of a commitment to standing up for workers for labour rights. It mattered in 2020 that Joe Biden campaigned the way he did and what he said about standing up for workers rights and now has been the most pro-union president of my lifetime. You know, I represent a region that very proudly made and still makes steel and built this country. And we suffered through terrible trade deals that really hurt places like western Pennsylvania, pushed by, you know, Wall Street and a corporate management ideology that just chased the cheapest and weakest labour in environmental rules. That kind of policy decision making, I think was misguided was a mistake. And what we’ve seen Democrats like me who recognise that, who understand fundamentally we have to do something different. If you look at.

Archive [00:37:54] Democrats like me have been doing battle with the exact kind of voters you’re asking about and say 2016. I think that is a result and a reflection of a commitment to standing up for workers for labour rights. It mattered in 2020 that Joe Biden campaigned the way he did and what he said about standing up for workers rights and now has been the most pro-union president of my lifetime. You know, I represent a region that very proudly made and still makes steel and built this country. And we suffered through terrible trade deals that really hurt places like western Pennsylvania, pushed by, you know, Wall Street and a corporate management ideology that just chased the cheapest and weakest labour in environmental rules. That kind of policy decision making, I think was misguided was a mistake. And what we’ve seen Democrats like me who recognise that, who understand fundamentally we have to do something different. If you look at.

Idrees Kahloon [00:38:55] The electoral map of western Pennsylvania, you will see a sea of red, with two exceptions. Allegheny County, which includes Pittsburgh and a large chunk of the 17th Congressional District, but also Erie tucked in the northwest corner of the state. Erie is also one of only two counties aside from Northampton County in the east that voted for Donald Trump in 2016 and then switched to Joe Biden in 2020. Trump held a rally in Erie last weekend, and it’s a perfect bellwether for the state. I talked to Jeff Bloodworth, who’s a professor of American political history at Gannon University in the city of Erie, which sits very picturesquely on the shores of the Great Lake. We met in a busy Turkish bakery not far from campus, where he told me why the area is so predictive of the rest of the state. It’s whiter.

Idrees Kahloon [00:38:55] The electoral map of western Pennsylvania, you will see a sea of red, with two exceptions. Allegheny County, which includes Pittsburgh and a large chunk of the 17th Congressional District, but also Erie tucked in the northwest corner of the state. Erie is also one of only two counties aside from Northampton County in the east that voted for Donald Trump in 2016 and then switched to Joe Biden in 2020. Trump held a rally in Erie last weekend, and it’s a perfect bellwether for the state. I talked to Jeff Bloodworth, who’s a professor of American political history at Gannon University in the city of Erie, which sits very picturesquely on the shores of the Great Lake. We met in a busy Turkish bakery not far from campus, where he told me why the area is so predictive of the rest of the state. It’s whiter.

Archive [00:39:41] It’s less educated, and it’s economically more downscale than the average Pennsylvanian. At the same time, 20% of people in the city of Erie are either African-American or recent immigrants. The city of Erie is a Democratic stronghold. And then you throw on the suburbs, right? I mean, these are these, you know, these college educated Republicans who don’t vote for Trump. Throw on to that. There’s a lot of all whites who are conservative. And so it’s kind of this perfect bellwether. And it’s a demographic microcosm of the state. If a Democrat can do well here, then they can do well enough for the rest of the state.

Archive [00:39:41] It’s less educated, and it’s economically more downscale than the average Pennsylvanian. At the same time, 20% of people in the city of Erie are either African-American or recent immigrants. The city of Erie is a Democratic stronghold. And then you throw on the suburbs, right? I mean, these are these, you know, these college educated Republicans who don’t vote for Trump. Throw on to that. There’s a lot of all whites who are conservative. And so it’s kind of this perfect bellwether. And it’s a demographic microcosm of the state. If a Democrat can do well here, then they can do well enough for the rest of the state.

Idrees Kahloon [00:40:22] And what are you seeing in terms of whether or not Democrats actually show up here? You know, do you see Harris’s folks out here doing things or what do you see?

Idrees Kahloon [00:40:22] And what are you seeing in terms of whether or not Democrats actually show up here? You know, do you see Harris’s folks out here doing things or what do you see?

Archive [00:40:32] Yeah. So another piece of this is just the Erie County Democratic Party itself. In that What it hasn’t done is follow the national trend of being hijacked. I would argue, you know, fighting for the progressive middle class. I mean, that’s what the National Party is. I mean, looking back like the Harris Shapiro ticket would have been the perfect distillation of what the modern Democratic Party has become. Coastal lawyers. Yeah. So? So the Erie County Democratic Party would. What they do is they have a bunch of normie Democrats and they’re going door to door and they’re able to fight off the national brand. You know, like, okay, well, Kamala Harris might believe X. But. you know, that’s not Kayle. Foust Who’s the county controller? So Harris is here, right? I mean, they have eight, eight staffers in the Erie County Democratic Party itself. You know, like they’re investing their boots on the ground. When you talk to.

Archive [00:40:32] Yeah. So another piece of this is just the Erie County Democratic Party itself. In that What it hasn’t done is follow the national trend of being hijacked. I would argue, you know, fighting for the progressive middle class. I mean, that’s what the National Party is. I mean, looking back like the Harris Shapiro ticket would have been the perfect distillation of what the modern Democratic Party has become. Coastal lawyers. Yeah. So? So the Erie County Democratic Party would. What they do is they have a bunch of normie Democrats and they’re going door to door and they’re able to fight off the national brand. You know, like, okay, well, Kamala Harris might believe X. But. you know, that’s not Kayle. Foust Who’s the county controller? So Harris is here, right? I mean, they have eight, eight staffers in the Erie County Democratic Party itself. You know, like they’re investing their boots on the ground. When you talk to.

Idrees Kahloon [00:41:35] Folks here, maybe your bosses are just out and about. What are the kinds of things that they kind of express. Most interesting of the issue was the economy, inflation basically, above all.

Idrees Kahloon [00:41:35] Folks here, maybe your bosses are just out and about. What are the kinds of things that they kind of express. Most interesting of the issue was the economy, inflation basically, above all.

Archive [00:41:48] There are people who might have been open to voting for a Democrat, you know, and they’re like, look, things were better under Trump. And again, for lower Middle class working class, it’s You know, your dollar does not go as far. So I think inflation or a certain kind of area. Right, Right. Because this is a very cost conscious market. Right. This is not a wealthy place. you know, as Compared to Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. So inflation really matters, especially for a kind of white ethnic Democrat who was like, maybe they voted for Trump in 16 and maybe they’re like, I like Joe Biden in 20. I could see that mattering. But you know what I heard again and again? I mean, it really isn’t about the issues. It’s really about Donald Trump. Does he repel you more just to attract you? Yeah.

Archive [00:41:48] There are people who might have been open to voting for a Democrat, you know, and they’re like, look, things were better under Trump. And again, for lower Middle class working class, it’s You know, your dollar does not go as far. So I think inflation or a certain kind of area. Right, Right. Because this is a very cost conscious market. Right. This is not a wealthy place. you know, as Compared to Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. So inflation really matters, especially for a kind of white ethnic Democrat who was like, maybe they voted for Trump in 16 and maybe they’re like, I like Joe Biden in 20. I could see that mattering. But you know what I heard again and again? I mean, it really isn’t about the issues. It’s really about Donald Trump. Does he repel you more just to attract you? Yeah.

John Prideaux [00:42:44] So Idrees, just to underline how different areas to the bits of Pennsylvania than Charlotte and Iowa with its really, really swing territory. I mean, as you said, only two counties went from Donald Trump to Joe Biden in 2022 out of Pennsylvania’s 67 counties and areas, one of them it’s a proper bellwether.

John Prideaux [00:42:44] So Idrees, just to underline how different areas to the bits of Pennsylvania than Charlotte and Iowa with its really, really swing territory. I mean, as you said, only two counties went from Donald Trump to Joe Biden in 2022 out of Pennsylvania’s 67 counties and areas, one of them it’s a proper bellwether.

Idrees Kahloon [00:43:04] Yes, that’s right. For all the reasons that he pointed out. It’s also the largest county in Pennsylvania. So it just does expand and include you know, it has a mini city. It has many suburbs. It has rural areas outside of it. So it’s a good barometer for the rest of the state. And that’s why you’ve seen Donald Trump spend as much time there as he has. I thought Jeff was really, really good. And one of the things he said at the end about whether or not Trump repels you or attracts you, I think is a good framework. But the other thing that occurred to me as you go around the state is people are very concerned about economics and inflation, but it’s also, I think, a kind of deeper cultural attachment. And it’s interesting to see that reflected in the slogans of both candidates. So Trump is keeping Make America Great Again, and Harris is supposed to be we’re not going back. And I think it’s why does education become the dividing line that it has? I think it’s sad for a lot of people. The past looks rosier than the present and for others, you know, generally people with college degrees, the future seems better than the past. And people want restoration. In the Trump case and in the Democratic case, people want, you know, what they think of as progress. And that, to me seems like the big dividing line. I mean, people will haggle over inflation and whatnot, But that seems to me to be not kind of the core issue that we’re talking about at it, actually. John, in your interviews, when people are saying, you know, there’s too much illegal immigration, this transgender ideology in schools, I mean, that seems to me to be what people are really kind of arguing about, or at least the partisans, of course. You know, it probably won’t be up to the partisans, but that was what was interesting to me from going around the state.

Idrees Kahloon [00:43:04] Yes, that’s right. For all the reasons that he pointed out. It’s also the largest county in Pennsylvania. So it just does expand and include you know, it has a mini city. It has many suburbs. It has rural areas outside of it. So it’s a good barometer for the rest of the state. And that’s why you’ve seen Donald Trump spend as much time there as he has. I thought Jeff was really, really good. And one of the things he said at the end about whether or not Trump repels you or attracts you, I think is a good framework. But the other thing that occurred to me as you go around the state is people are very concerned about economics and inflation, but it’s also, I think, a kind of deeper cultural attachment. And it’s interesting to see that reflected in the slogans of both candidates. So Trump is keeping Make America Great Again, and Harris is supposed to be we’re not going back. And I think it’s why does education become the dividing line that it has? I think it’s sad for a lot of people. The past looks rosier than the present and for others, you know, generally people with college degrees, the future seems better than the past. And people want restoration. In the Trump case and in the Democratic case, people want, you know, what they think of as progress. And that, to me seems like the big dividing line. I mean, people will haggle over inflation and whatnot, But that seems to me to be not kind of the core issue that we’re talking about at it, actually. John, in your interviews, when people are saying, you know, there’s too much illegal immigration, this transgender ideology in schools, I mean, that seems to me to be what people are really kind of arguing about, or at least the partisans, of course. You know, it probably won’t be up to the partisans, but that was what was interesting to me from going around the state.

Charlotte Howard [00:44:44] I think a challenge for any campaign is how to marry immediate concerns. In this case, I think inflation within a broader narrative that is tied, I think you’re right address to questions of perception of whether the past and prior period of someone’s life looks rosier than what they expect the future to be. I’m struck by in both campaigns, though, how much of the economic messaging does feel pretty retro, right? I mean, we’re talking about a sense of restoring a certain type of economy in both parties. We’re talking about promoting union jobs. In the case of the Democrats, Trump talks about trying to restore a kind of economic prosperity that has been lost in the Biden years. So in both cases, there is a bit of a retro economic messaging that is happening within a quite new economic framework of protectionism and government intervention.

Charlotte Howard [00:44:44] I think a challenge for any campaign is how to marry immediate concerns. In this case, I think inflation within a broader narrative that is tied, I think you’re right address to questions of perception of whether the past and prior period of someone’s life looks rosier than what they expect the future to be. I’m struck by in both campaigns, though, how much of the economic messaging does feel pretty retro, right? I mean, we’re talking about a sense of restoring a certain type of economy in both parties. We’re talking about promoting union jobs. In the case of the Democrats, Trump talks about trying to restore a kind of economic prosperity that has been lost in the Biden years. So in both cases, there is a bit of a retro economic messaging that is happening within a quite new economic framework of protectionism and government intervention.

Idrees Kahloon [00:45:41] Yeah, that’s right. And Harris gave a speech in Pittsburgh where she laid out. Her New economic policy, which, like you said, has an emphasis on unions. I find the democratic embrace of unions a kind of last gasp almost. Democrats are undergoing this big transition where they are becoming the party of the college educated, the managerial class, and they’re transitioning out of being a working class party. And that’s a problem for them because there just aren’t as many college educated Americans as there are non-college educated Americans. And you see already the Teamsters not endorsing Harris because their members Are Blue collar without degrees and they’re drifting pretty substantially towards Donald Trump. Democrats are promising lots of really good economic incentives for working class Americans, and yet they seem to be losing their grip on them. And that’s why I think they’re trying and they’re fighting as hard as they are to try to keep them. And I think it makes sense, right? You don’t want to do what Hillary Clinton did and totally consign whole swathes of the country off to the other side. You need to cut into your margins and you need to come up with policies that try to appeal, even if you’re not going to be all that successful. Because, you know, in a state like Pennsylvania, every vote in every place will count.

Idrees Kahloon [00:45:41] Yeah, that’s right. And Harris gave a speech in Pittsburgh where she laid out. Her New economic policy, which, like you said, has an emphasis on unions. I find the democratic embrace of unions a kind of last gasp almost. Democrats are undergoing this big transition where they are becoming the party of the college educated, the managerial class, and they’re transitioning out of being a working class party. And that’s a problem for them because there just aren’t as many college educated Americans as there are non-college educated Americans. And you see already the Teamsters not endorsing Harris because their members Are Blue collar without degrees and they’re drifting pretty substantially towards Donald Trump. Democrats are promising lots of really good economic incentives for working class Americans, and yet they seem to be losing their grip on them. And that’s why I think they’re trying and they’re fighting as hard as they are to try to keep them. And I think it makes sense, right? You don’t want to do what Hillary Clinton did and totally consign whole swathes of the country off to the other side. You need to cut into your margins and you need to come up with policies that try to appeal, even if you’re not going to be all that successful. Because, you know, in a state like Pennsylvania, every vote in every place will count.

Who’s winning in Pennsylvania?

Our weekly podcast on democracy in America. This week our hosts travel to the state most likely to decide the election

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