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How October 7th shattered the Middle East

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Year of destruction: how October 7th shattered the Middle East

People hold hands at a memorial event marking the one-year anniversary of the Hamas attack in southern Israel, in Tel Aviv, on October 7, 2024

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After Hamas militants attacked Israel a year ago, few people predicted how deep and devastating the ensuing conflict in the Middle East would be. The Economist’s Middle East experts discuss whether the fissures may ever be fixed, including dispatches from Israel, Gaza and Lebanon.  Runtime: 27 min

After Hamas militants attacked Israel a year ago, few people predicted how deep and devastating the <a href="https://www.economist.com/leaders/2024/10/03/the-year-that-shattered-the-middle-east?utm_campaign=a.io&utm_medium=audio.podcast.np&utm_source=theintelligence&utm_content=discovery.content.anonymous.tr_shownotes_na-na_article&utm_term=sa.listeners" target="_blank">ensuing conflict in the Middle East</a> would be. The Economist’s Middle East experts discuss whether the <a href="https://www.economist.com/briefing/2024/10/03/the-bloodshed-in-the-middle-east-is-fast-expanding?utm_campaign=a.io&utm_medium=audio.podcast.np&utm_source=theintelligence&utm_content=discovery.content.anonymous.tr_shownotes_na-na_article&utm_term=sa.listeners" target="_blank">fissures may ever be fixed</a>, including dispatches from <a href="https://www.economist.com/briefing/2024/10/03/a-year-on-israeli-society-is-divided-about-the-lessons-of-october-7th?utm_campaign=a.io&utm_medium=audio.podcast.np&utm_source=theintelligence&utm_content=discovery.content.anonymous.tr_shownotes_na-na_article&utm_term=sa.listeners" target="_blank">Israel</a>, <a href="https://www.economist.com/briefing/2024/10/03/has-the-war-in-gaza-radicalised-young-palestinians?utm_campaign=a.io&utm_medium=audio.podcast.np&utm_source=theintelligence&utm_content=discovery.content.anonymous.tr_shownotes_na-na_article&utm_term=sa.listeners" target="_blank">Gaza</a> and <a href="https://www.economist.com/interactive/middle-east-and-africa/israel-lebanon-hizbullah-iran-war-strikes-map-tracker?utm_campaign=a.io&utm_medium=audio.podcast.np&utm_source=theintelligence&utm_content=discovery.content.anonymous.tr_shownotes_na-na_article&utm_term=sa.listeners" target="_blank">Lebanon</a>.  Runtime: 27 min

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Rosie Blau [00:00:10] Hello and welcome to the intelligence from The Economist. I’m your host, Rosie Blau. Today we’re devoting the whole episode to an event that has shaped the past 12 months. A year ago today, thousands of members of Hamas, a militant Palestinian group based in Gaza, passed through barriers into Israel. They massacred more than 1100 people and took a further 250 hostage. Since then, Israel has fought non-stop with Hamas. In Gaza, Nearly 2 million people there have been displaced and much of the territory has been reduced to rubble. Israel has exchanged rockets with Iraq, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen. A week ago, it sent troops across the border into Lebanon to battle Hezbollah, a Lebanese militia. The next day, Iran launched a salvo of missiles at Israel. And this weekend we saw the heaviest bombing of Lebanon yet with waves of airstrikes there, as well as further Israeli attacks on Gaza. The Middle East, so often described as being on the brink, appears to be toppling over it. In today’s show, we’ll be talking about how the region has changed in the wake of the October the 7th attacks. And I’m joined now by Josie Delap, our Middle East editor, and Greg Carlstrom, one of our Middle East correspondent. Josie, you were living in Tel Aviv at the time. What do you remember about that October day?

Rosie Blau [00:00:10] Hello and welcome to the intelligence from The Economist. I’m your host, Rosie Blau. Today we’re devoting the whole episode to an event that has shaped the past 12 months. A year ago today, thousands of members of Hamas, a militant Palestinian group based in Gaza, passed through barriers into Israel. They massacred more than 1100 people and took a further 250 hostage. Since then, Israel has fought non-stop with Hamas. In Gaza, Nearly 2 million people there have been displaced and much of the territory has been reduced to rubble. Israel has exchanged rockets with Iraq, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen. A week ago, it sent troops across the border into Lebanon to battle Hezbollah, a Lebanese militia. The next day, Iran launched a salvo of missiles at Israel. And this weekend we saw the heaviest bombing of Lebanon yet with waves of airstrikes there, as well as further Israeli attacks on Gaza. The Middle East, so often described as being on the brink, appears to be toppling over it. In today’s show, we’ll be talking about how the region has changed in the wake of the October the 7th attacks. And I’m joined now by Josie Delap, our Middle East editor, and Greg Carlstrom, one of our Middle East correspondent. Josie, you were living in Tel Aviv at the time. What do you remember about that October day?

Josie Delap [00:01:49] Yes, I moved there a couple of months before with my family. We were woken up at 6:30 with sirens, with alerts from the government. We went to our bomb shelter, which we had in the basement of our house with our children. And we spent the rest of that day and that night going in and out of the bomb shelter. There was talk of whether terrorists had infiltrated the rest of Israel, that there were still people on the loose, which obviously in southern Israel was the case. It wasn’t in Tel Aviv. And it was a very scary and uncertain day.

Josie Delap [00:01:49] Yes, I moved there a couple of months before with my family. We were woken up at 6:30 with sirens, with alerts from the government. We went to our bomb shelter, which we had in the basement of our house with our children. And we spent the rest of that day and that night going in and out of the bomb shelter. There was talk of whether terrorists had infiltrated the rest of Israel, that there were still people on the loose, which obviously in southern Israel was the case. It wasn’t in Tel Aviv. And it was a very scary and uncertain day.

Rosie Blau [00:02:26] Greg, as you saw the events of the day unfold. How aware were you, do you think, of what the consequences might be of how far reaching this was going to be?

Rosie Blau [00:02:26] Greg, as you saw the events of the day unfold. How aware were you, do you think, of what the consequences might be of how far reaching this was going to be?

Gregg Carlstrom [00:02:37] I’m not sure anyone was aware of exactly what the consequences were going to be. I think for me, watching on October 7th, it was clear that there was going to be a war in Gaza, an Israeli ground invasion of Gaza, and that this would be a conflict unlike anything that we had seen in the almost 20 years since Hamas came to power in Gaza, but that it was still going to go on a year later, that that war would be unfinished. I didn’t anticipate that back then, and I don’t think many people anticipated it. I remember a few weeks after October 7th, I was in Israel on a reporting trip. I was speaking with an Israeli army officer who was trying to draw up a strategy for the ground invasion, which hadn’t yet happened at that point. And we were talking about how long the war might go on. And his estimate was that it would last for about three months. Even he didn’t have any idea of just how big and just how long this was going to be.

Gregg Carlstrom [00:02:37] I’m not sure anyone was aware of exactly what the consequences were going to be. I think for me, watching on October 7th, it was clear that there was going to be a war in Gaza, an Israeli ground invasion of Gaza, and that this would be a conflict unlike anything that we had seen in the almost 20 years since Hamas came to power in Gaza, but that it was still going to go on a year later, that that war would be unfinished. I didn’t anticipate that back then, and I don’t think many people anticipated it. I remember a few weeks after October 7th, I was in Israel on a reporting trip. I was speaking with an Israeli army officer who was trying to draw up a strategy for the ground invasion, which hadn’t yet happened at that point. And we were talking about how long the war might go on. And his estimate was that it would last for about three months. Even he didn’t have any idea of just how big and just how long this was going to be.

Rosie Blau [00:03:39] Over by Hanukkah. One of the key questions after those October the 7th attacks was how Israel would respond. And that decision, of course, ultimately came down to the country’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu. Israel correspondent Anshel Pfeffer, who’s based in Jerusalem and indeed has written a book about him, has been reflecting on how October the 7th changed the country’s politics and divided its society.

Rosie Blau [00:03:39] Over by Hanukkah. One of the key questions after those October the 7th attacks was how Israel would respond. And that decision, of course, ultimately came down to the country’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu. Israel correspondent Anshel Pfeffer, who’s based in Jerusalem and indeed has written a book about him, has been reflecting on how October the 7th changed the country’s politics and divided its society.

Clip [00:04:07] I feel so bad. I don’t know. Hello? What’s going.

Clip [00:04:07] I feel so bad. I don’t know. Hello? What’s going.

Anshel Pfeffer [00:04:18] October 7th was a tragic but unifying moment for Israelis. The massacre had hit diverse parts of Israeli society, from the kibbutzim on the border to nearby working class neighbourhoods and Bedouin townships of the Negev Desert. In the days after it was, hundreds of thousands of reservists rushed to their units, their different politics and backgrounds blended in, cocky uniformity, and even the government shelved its controversial judicial reform plans that had deeply divided Israelis in the months before the war. But that moment of unity proved to be a brief illusion. It soon emerged that though Israelis were fighting together, many of them were fighting very different wars. For a majority of Israelis of the mainstream, the devastating campaign unleashed in Gaza was supposed to be a relatively short one, aimed at destroying Hamas and restoring security to the border communities. Then perhaps there would be the prospect of a regional security and diplomatic framework which could deliver lasting peace. But a significant majority in the religious right, crucially holding the balance of power in government saw the war as a God given opportunity to restore a permanent Israeli presence in Gaza and rebuild Jewish settlements there.

Anshel Pfeffer [00:04:18] October 7th was a tragic but unifying moment for Israelis. The massacre had hit diverse parts of Israeli society, from the kibbutzim on the border to nearby working class neighbourhoods and Bedouin townships of the Negev Desert. In the days after it was, hundreds of thousands of reservists rushed to their units, their different politics and backgrounds blended in, cocky uniformity, and even the government shelved its controversial judicial reform plans that had deeply divided Israelis in the months before the war. But that moment of unity proved to be a brief illusion. It soon emerged that though Israelis were fighting together, many of them were fighting very different wars. For a majority of Israelis of the mainstream, the devastating campaign unleashed in Gaza was supposed to be a relatively short one, aimed at destroying Hamas and restoring security to the border communities. Then perhaps there would be the prospect of a regional security and diplomatic framework which could deliver lasting peace. But a significant majority in the religious right, crucially holding the balance of power in government saw the war as a God given opportunity to restore a permanent Israeli presence in Gaza and rebuild Jewish settlements there.

Clip [00:05:32] Hostage deal. Now.

Anshel Pfeffer [00:05:35] As the war dragged on, that divide between Israelis was embodied in an increasingly acrimonious debate over a possible ceasefire.

Anshel Pfeffer [00:05:35] As the war dragged on, that divide between Israelis was embodied in an increasingly acrimonious debate over a possible ceasefire.

Clip [00:05:43] This was Netanyahu’s.

Clip [00:05:46] Peter Peter is no longer a legitimate leader of the state of Israel. We.

Clip [00:05:46] Peter Peter is no longer a legitimate leader of the state of Israel. We.

Anshel Pfeffer [00:05:54] The cease fire supporters yearn for the release of 100 hostages still held in Gaza, whose pictures and names could be seen in posters in every street in Israel. And then there were those who favour the war going on indefinitely until Hamas was totally obliterated, even if it came at the expense of the hostages. And then there was a third war, the personal war of political survival being waged by Benjamin Netanyahu.

Anshel Pfeffer [00:05:54] The cease fire supporters yearn for the release of 100 hostages still held in Gaza, whose pictures and names could be seen in posters in every street in Israel. And then there were those who favour the war going on indefinitely until Hamas was totally obliterated, even if it came at the expense of the hostages. And then there was a third war, the personal war of political survival being waged by Benjamin Netanyahu.

Clip [00:06:19] As Israel fights the forces of barbarism led by Iran. All civilised countries should be standing firmly by Israel’s side.

Clip [00:06:19] As Israel fights the forces of barbarism led by Iran. All civilised countries should be standing firmly by Israel’s side.

Anshel Pfeffer [00:06:26] The Prime Minister was seen by most Israelis as responsible for a policy of containment of Hamas that enabled it to arm and prepare for the October 7th attack. But Netanyahu refused to bear any responsibility, blaming others for his failures and promising Israelis a vague, total victory.

Anshel Pfeffer [00:06:26] The Prime Minister was seen by most Israelis as responsible for a policy of containment of Hamas that enabled it to arm and prepare for the October 7th attack. But Netanyahu refused to bear any responsibility, blaming others for his failures and promising Israelis a vague, total victory.

Clip [00:06:45] Rest assured, Israel will fight until the battle is won, for our sake. And for the sake of the peace and security of the entire world.

Clip [00:06:45] Rest assured, Israel will fight until the battle is won, for our sake. And for the sake of the peace and security of the entire world.

Anshel Pfeffer [00:06:54] He brazen out the pressures at home and from the Biden administration abroad to accept a cease fire in Gaza towards the end of the year. A second front escalated, this time against Hezbollah on Israel’s northern border with Lebanon and then a third front in exchange of long range air and missile strikes between Israel and far away Iran and Yemen. The new wars have all but pushed Gaza off the Israeli agenda. A year on from October 7th, Israel is still adrift without agreed war aims or a clear strategy for any of its multiple wars. Stuck between its national tragedy and the personal agenda of the man who claims to lead it.

Anshel Pfeffer [00:06:54] He brazen out the pressures at home and from the Biden administration abroad to accept a cease fire in Gaza towards the end of the year. A second front escalated, this time against Hezbollah on Israel’s northern border with Lebanon and then a third front in exchange of long range air and missile strikes between Israel and far away Iran and Yemen. The new wars have all but pushed Gaza off the Israeli agenda. A year on from October 7th, Israel is still adrift without agreed war aims or a clear strategy for any of its multiple wars. Stuck between its national tragedy and the personal agenda of the man who claims to lead it.

Rosie Blau [00:07:39] How far do you think then that the options now for Israel actually hinge on whether Netanyahu stays in power?

Rosie Blau [00:07:39] How far do you think then that the options now for Israel actually hinge on whether Netanyahu stays in power?

Gregg Carlstrom [00:07:46] I think the options are getting more and more complicated as this conflict expands. For most of the past year. Everyone has seen the road to a cease fire in Lebanon. The road to calm on other fronts is running through Gaza, starting in Gaza. And that depended entirely on Netanyahu and his unwillingness to make a deal lest the far right members of his coalition. But I think now, given that there is this escalating Israeli war in Lebanon, given that there is this direct conflict between Israel and Iran, it’s a bit harder to see how a ceasefire in Gaza unlocks peace on those other fronts. Israel now has much further reaching goals in Lebanon than it did a few months ago. It’s looking to impose some sort of cost and some sort of deterrence on Iran. And it doesn’t accomplish those things by making a deal in Gaza. And so I think these multiple conflicts that were all linked for 11 months or so might have become unlinked now. And that’s going to make it much harder to find off ramps with any of these conflicts.

Gregg Carlstrom [00:07:46] I think the options are getting more and more complicated as this conflict expands. For most of the past year. Everyone has seen the road to a cease fire in Lebanon. The road to calm on other fronts is running through Gaza, starting in Gaza. And that depended entirely on Netanyahu and his unwillingness to make a deal lest the far right members of his coalition. But I think now, given that there is this escalating Israeli war in Lebanon, given that there is this direct conflict between Israel and Iran, it’s a bit harder to see how a ceasefire in Gaza unlocks peace on those other fronts. Israel now has much further reaching goals in Lebanon than it did a few months ago. It’s looking to impose some sort of cost and some sort of deterrence on Iran. And it doesn’t accomplish those things by making a deal in Gaza. And so I think these multiple conflicts that were all linked for 11 months or so might have become unlinked now. And that’s going to make it much harder to find off ramps with any of these conflicts.

Josie Delap [00:08:50] I think that what’s striking over this year is how much attention has been focussed on Netanyahu. There’s been a sense that he is one of the big obstacles to peace and holds the power to bring the war in Gaza and the wider conflict to an end. And I think that, as Greg says, it has become a lot more complicated. But it’s also true that in the unlikely event of an election and Netanyahu losing his position, which also is not guaranteed, it’s not true that suddenly this becomes simple and Israel is gifted a government that is coherent and wants to bring the fighting to an end. So I think although Netanyahu certainly holds much of the responsibility for what has happened this year, it’s also a mistake at this point to assume that getting rid of him would suddenly lead to peace.

Josie Delap [00:08:50] I think that what’s striking over this year is how much attention has been focussed on Netanyahu. There’s been a sense that he is one of the big obstacles to peace and holds the power to bring the war in Gaza and the wider conflict to an end. And I think that, as Greg says, it has become a lot more complicated. But it’s also true that in the unlikely event of an election and Netanyahu losing his position, which also is not guaranteed, it’s not true that suddenly this becomes simple and Israel is gifted a government that is coherent and wants to bring the fighting to an end. So I think although Netanyahu certainly holds much of the responsibility for what has happened this year, it’s also a mistake at this point to assume that getting rid of him would suddenly lead to peace.

Josie Delap [00:09:46] And, of course, his actions have really affected Israel’s reputation abroad, particularly amongst its sort of staunch allies. How far does that now change what it can do or what might happen?

Josie Delap [00:09:46] And, of course, his actions have really affected Israel’s reputation abroad, particularly amongst its sort of staunch allies. How far does that now change what it can do or what might happen?

Josie Delap [00:09:59] I think that’s quite complicated as well. Israel’s reputation has clearly taken an enormous hit this year. I mean, you’ve got its leaders facing accusations of war crimes. You’ve got allies such as Britain and France suggesting that they should be limiting the arms that they are selling to Israel. But I think what is really striking actually at this point is that America, which is far and away Israel’s greatest ally, is still very much close to Israel. It has, despite all of the warnings, despite all of the pressure to limit the fighting in Gaza, to refrain from invading Lebanon, to avoid escalating a conflict in Iran, Israel has done all of these things and there have been very few consequences for it, for ignoring the entreaties of the American government to limit its responses.

Josie Delap [00:09:59] I think that’s quite complicated as well. Israel’s reputation has clearly taken an enormous hit this year. I mean, you’ve got its leaders facing accusations of war crimes. You’ve got allies such as Britain and France suggesting that they should be limiting the arms that they are selling to Israel. But I think what is really striking actually at this point is that America, which is far and away Israel’s greatest ally, is still very much close to Israel. It has, despite all of the warnings, despite all of the pressure to limit the fighting in Gaza, to refrain from invading Lebanon, to avoid escalating a conflict in Iran, Israel has done all of these things and there have been very few consequences for it, for ignoring the entreaties of the American government to limit its responses.

Rosie Blau [00:10:54] Okay, so let’s turn to Gaza. Since Israel invaded the territory in October 2023, nearly 42,000 people in Gaza have been killed. And as we’ve said before, much of the territory has been reduced to rubble, its housing stock, its infrastructure. Now, Greg, over the summer, you went into Gaza with Zanny Minton Beddoes, our editor in chief. Let’s just listen to a bit of what you saw there.

Rosie Blau [00:10:54] Okay, so let’s turn to Gaza. Since Israel invaded the territory in October 2023, nearly 42,000 people in Gaza have been killed. And as we’ve said before, much of the territory has been reduced to rubble, its housing stock, its infrastructure. Now, Greg, over the summer, you went into Gaza with Zanny Minton Beddoes, our editor in chief. Let’s just listen to a bit of what you saw there.

Clip [00:11:24] Coming. I am not one.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:11:33] The door slams shut on our armoured vehicle. I’m now sitting on a bench seat in the back as it hurtles along a very bumpy dirt road heading into Gaza. I’m bouncing along in my flak jacket and helmet, squashed next to several Israeli soldiers, kitted out with full body armour and weapons.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:11:33] The door slams shut on our armoured vehicle. I’m now sitting on a bench seat in the back as it hurtles along a very bumpy dirt road heading into Gaza. I’m bouncing along in my flak jacket and helmet, squashed next to several Israeli soldiers, kitted out with full body armour and weapons.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:11:53] Here you can see the fence now. This is the this is the border. And this is where we put helmets on.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:11:53] Here you can see the fence now. This is the this is the border. And this is where we put helmets on.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:11:59] We’re driving along a new road inside Gaza, Highway 749, what the Israelis call the net stream corridor. It’s a strip of land cleared and controlled by the Israeli military that cuts Gaza in two. It stretches from the border, runs just south of Gaza City and ends at the Mediterranean Sea. It used to be a sort of agricultural and industrial area. Farms, warehouses, a few homes. Our Middle East correspondent Greg Kallstrom has been in Gaza many times before, but found it difficult to recognise anything.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:11:59] We’re driving along a new road inside Gaza, Highway 749, what the Israelis call the net stream corridor. It’s a strip of land cleared and controlled by the Israeli military that cuts Gaza in two. It stretches from the border, runs just south of Gaza City and ends at the Mediterranean Sea. It used to be a sort of agricultural and industrial area. Farms, warehouses, a few homes. Our Middle East correspondent Greg Kallstrom has been in Gaza many times before, but found it difficult to recognise anything.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:12:35] Where the.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:12:35] Where the.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:12:36] Level of destruction is pretty complete. I mean, thinking about coming back into Gaza, say after the war in 2014, there were neighbourhoods like Zawiya on the border, on the eastern border, that were very, very badly hit, but they were still sort of recognisable as what they were. You could see where where the streets were, where the apartment blocks were. Here it’s just it’s sort of very organised and complete destruction where on both sides of the roads what you see is just piles of rubble.

Zanny Minton Beddoes [00:12:36] Level of destruction is pretty complete. I mean, thinking about coming back into Gaza, say after the war in 2014, there were neighbourhoods like Zawiya on the border, on the eastern border, that were very, very badly hit, but they were still sort of recognisable as what they were. You could see where where the streets were, where the apartment blocks were. Here it’s just it’s sort of very organised and complete destruction where on both sides of the roads what you see is just piles of rubble.

Rosie Blau [00:13:11] And that recording comes from an addition of the weekend intelligence, looking at what might happen after the war ends. Listeners can find it right next to this episode in your podcast app. And on this occasion, it’s free. Whether you’re a subscriber to Economist Podcast Plus or not. Greg, of course, as we’ve heard, you were there on that trip. What strikes you some months down the line about your visit in the summer?

Rosie Blau [00:13:11] And that recording comes from an addition of the weekend intelligence, looking at what might happen after the war ends. Listeners can find it right next to this episode in your podcast app. And on this occasion, it’s free. Whether you’re a subscriber to Economist Podcast Plus or not. Greg, of course, as we’ve heard, you were there on that trip. What strikes you some months down the line about your visit in the summer?

Gregg Carlstrom [00:13:35] I think the fact that nothing has changed, the humanitarian situation hasn’t markedly changed, or if anything, it’s gotten worse. We were there to look at this pier that the Americans had built off the coast of Gaza, which was supposed to receive aid deliveries. That pier was dismantled just a couple of weeks after we went to visit because it wasn’t able to withstand the rough seas in the Mediterranean. And since then, the flow of humanitarian aid into Gaza has fallen even further. There’s less and less aid trucks coming in each day. It feels as if the war has just ground into this months long stalemate than it has had. Awful, awful consequences for almost 2 million people who have been displaced now for almost a year in miserable conditions.

Gregg Carlstrom [00:13:35] I think the fact that nothing has changed, the humanitarian situation hasn’t markedly changed, or if anything, it’s gotten worse. We were there to look at this pier that the Americans had built off the coast of Gaza, which was supposed to receive aid deliveries. That pier was dismantled just a couple of weeks after we went to visit because it wasn’t able to withstand the rough seas in the Mediterranean. And since then, the flow of humanitarian aid into Gaza has fallen even further. There’s less and less aid trucks coming in each day. It feels as if the war has just ground into this months long stalemate than it has had. Awful, awful consequences for almost 2 million people who have been displaced now for almost a year in miserable conditions.

Rosie Blau [00:14:22] And of course, you’re right, Greg, We talk about war aims. We talk about strategy, we talk about destruction. But at the nub end of this conflict are millions of people trying to press on, trying to cope with the war that has torn apart their lives and their homes? Jose, what sense do you have of the response of the Palestinians and their sense of themselves?

Rosie Blau [00:14:22] And of course, you’re right, Greg, We talk about war aims. We talk about strategy, we talk about destruction. But at the nub end of this conflict are millions of people trying to press on, trying to cope with the war that has torn apart their lives and their homes? Jose, what sense do you have of the response of the Palestinians and their sense of themselves?

Gregg Carlstrom [00:14:44] I think, as you would expect, that response is in large part one of despair. And I think that what has happened has both strengthened their sense of identity, their sense of the urgent need for a Palestinian state. Their sense of themselves as a people. I think that has been true both within the Palestinian territories and among the Palestinian diaspora. But I think it has also created a sense of hopelessness, a question of how that can possibly ever be the case in the current situation. As Greg says, this war has ground on for a year. It is very hard to see how either side gets out of it. It’s very hard to see much desire or impetus from those in power to reach any kind of just settlement. So I think that for many Palestinians, this is a moment where they really have to ask where they are asking what can we do next in order to try and create this country that we have been longing for for so many decades.

Gregg Carlstrom [00:14:44] I think, as you would expect, that response is in large part one of despair. And I think that what has happened has both strengthened their sense of identity, their sense of the urgent need for a Palestinian state. Their sense of themselves as a people. I think that has been true both within the Palestinian territories and among the Palestinian diaspora. But I think it has also created a sense of hopelessness, a question of how that can possibly ever be the case in the current situation. As Greg says, this war has ground on for a year. It is very hard to see how either side gets out of it. It’s very hard to see much desire or impetus from those in power to reach any kind of just settlement. So I think that for many Palestinians, this is a moment where they really have to ask where they are asking what can we do next in order to try and create this country that we have been longing for for so many decades.

Gregg Carlstrom [00:15:53] Greg Jose talks about despair. She talks about hopelessness. Presumably there’s a huge amount of rage, too. Surely some of this action has bred a new generation of militants.

Gregg Carlstrom [00:15:53] Greg Jose talks about despair. She talks about hopelessness. Presumably there’s a huge amount of rage, too. Surely some of this action has bred a new generation of militants.

Gregg Carlstrom [00:16:06] And that has been the entire history of this conflict. I mean, every time there is some round of violence between Israel and the Palestinians, the warning is always that it’s going to create the next generation of militants. I think if you look at Gaza, there’s been an interesting dynamic based on the very limited polls that we can see. And obviously, it’s a very difficult place to do polling. But Hamas’s popularity in Gaza has collapsed over the past year where there are so many people who blame it for dragging the territory into a war that Hamas could not possibly hope to win. And so I’m sure Hamas is trying to recruit a new generation of militants to replace those who have been lost over the past year. But it’s doing so at a time when even though there is this rage, even though there are hundreds of thousands of people in Gaza who have lost loved ones or lost their homes, they’re also angry at Hamas. And so the politics of it in Gaza are somewhat complicated, whereas the politics of it in the West Bank arguably are a bit more straightforward. People there are putting their support behind Hamas based on polls because they see it as a group that is fighting Israel and they’re not obviously enduring the worst of the consequences over this past year.

Gregg Carlstrom [00:16:06] And that has been the entire history of this conflict. I mean, every time there is some round of violence between Israel and the Palestinians, the warning is always that it’s going to create the next generation of militants. I think if you look at Gaza, there’s been an interesting dynamic based on the very limited polls that we can see. And obviously, it’s a very difficult place to do polling. But Hamas’s popularity in Gaza has collapsed over the past year where there are so many people who blame it for dragging the territory into a war that Hamas could not possibly hope to win. And so I’m sure Hamas is trying to recruit a new generation of militants to replace those who have been lost over the past year. But it’s doing so at a time when even though there is this rage, even though there are hundreds of thousands of people in Gaza who have lost loved ones or lost their homes, they’re also angry at Hamas. And so the politics of it in Gaza are somewhat complicated, whereas the politics of it in the West Bank arguably are a bit more straightforward. People there are putting their support behind Hamas based on polls because they see it as a group that is fighting Israel and they’re not obviously enduring the worst of the consequences over this past year.

Gregg Carlstrom [00:17:25] Jose Greg, we’ll be back with some more questions in just a moment. We’ve already mentioned that in recent weeks, Israel’s focus has shifted away from Gaza to its northern border. And two weeks ago, of course, there were exploding pagers that targeted thousands of members of Hezbollah. Last week, after days of rocket and missile exchanges between the two sides, Israel launched a ground invasion into Lebanon. And the Lebanese authorities say that since then, over a thousand people have been killed and hundreds of thousands have been displaced. Our Beirut correspondent Gareth Brown sent us a dispatch from there.

Gregg Carlstrom [00:17:25] Jose Greg, we’ll be back with some more questions in just a moment. We’ve already mentioned that in recent weeks, Israel’s focus has shifted away from Gaza to its northern border. And two weeks ago, of course, there were exploding pagers that targeted thousands of members of Hezbollah. Last week, after days of rocket and missile exchanges between the two sides, Israel launched a ground invasion into Lebanon. And the Lebanese authorities say that since then, over a thousand people have been killed and hundreds of thousands have been displaced. Our Beirut correspondent Gareth Brown sent us a dispatch from there.

Gregg Carlstrom [00:18:08] This is done in the sprawling southern suburbs of Beirut. It’s known as a Hezbollah stronghold. Normally, it’s crowded, but more than 700,000 residents have fled. A few remain. We’re back checking out the damage. For the past few weeks, it’s been the centre of Israel’s campaign of airstrikes on Lebanon. And it’s where late last month Israel assassinated Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah. The booms of airstrikes have become a regular fixture of life in Beirut, a part of the city’s soundscape, like a non-stop honking of car horns. That does not mean people aren’t scared. Hossein Zane is 52. He lives here in Dahiya and remained. He didn’t want to flee. Not enough is enough. Pull up in buses. He says innocent people are suffering because Israel is not just targeting Hezbollah, it’s killing Lebanese civilians. In Lebanon, there are no sirens to alert people of incoming missiles, no bunkers for people to hide in, and certainly no air defence. I heard the strike that killed Nasrallah from my apartment in west Beirut. My window shook and people in the neighbourhood rushed to the rooftops to get a glimpse of what was happening. Since the attack, thousands of people have flocked to my relatively safer neighbourhood. The other day, as I waited in line at the bakery on my street, I noticed a man covered in scars. His left hand was missing and the stump was bandaged. His face was covered in cuts and his thick southern Lebanese accent suggested he was one of the thousands of people injured in the page attacks last month. Lebanon’s modern history has been wracked by a series of political assassinations. But what might Nasrallah’s killing mean for Lebanon? Ronnie Carter’s father, Mohammed, was assassinated in 2013. He had been an adviser to the prime minister. The charter says this killing may stand out.

Gregg Carlstrom [00:18:08] This is done in the sprawling southern suburbs of Beirut. It’s known as a Hezbollah stronghold. Normally, it’s crowded, but more than 700,000 residents have fled. A few remain. We’re back checking out the damage. For the past few weeks, it’s been the centre of Israel’s campaign of airstrikes on Lebanon. And it’s where late last month Israel assassinated Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah. The booms of airstrikes have become a regular fixture of life in Beirut, a part of the city’s soundscape, like a non-stop honking of car horns. That does not mean people aren’t scared. Hossein Zane is 52. He lives here in Dahiya and remained. He didn’t want to flee. Not enough is enough. Pull up in buses. He says innocent people are suffering because Israel is not just targeting Hezbollah, it’s killing Lebanese civilians. In Lebanon, there are no sirens to alert people of incoming missiles, no bunkers for people to hide in, and certainly no air defence. I heard the strike that killed Nasrallah from my apartment in west Beirut. My window shook and people in the neighbourhood rushed to the rooftops to get a glimpse of what was happening. Since the attack, thousands of people have flocked to my relatively safer neighbourhood. The other day, as I waited in line at the bakery on my street, I noticed a man covered in scars. His left hand was missing and the stump was bandaged. His face was covered in cuts and his thick southern Lebanese accent suggested he was one of the thousands of people injured in the page attacks last month. Lebanon’s modern history has been wracked by a series of political assassinations. But what might Nasrallah’s killing mean for Lebanon? Ronnie Carter’s father, Mohammed, was assassinated in 2013. He had been an adviser to the prime minister. The charter says this killing may stand out.

Gregg Carlstrom [00:20:05] And it’s going to leave an impact.

Gregg Carlstrom [00:20:05] And it’s going to leave an impact.

Gregg Carlstrom [00:20:07] For sure. But I think it’s less compared to anyone in Lebanese history and more in line.

Gregg Carlstrom [00:20:07] For sure. But I think it’s less compared to anyone in Lebanese history and more in line.

Clip [00:20:16] With maybe the end.

Clip [00:20:20] Of something Iran built, something that.

Clip [00:20:20] Of something Iran built, something that.

Clip [00:20:24] Lasted host exploration, meaning Hezbollah in a shelter in the southern city of Saida. A man displaced from the border villages named Zain says that if Israel’s war in Lebanon morphs into an occupation, it won’t just be Hezbollah fighting back. And if you all know where all the resistance he says.

Clip [00:20:24] Lasted host exploration, meaning Hezbollah in a shelter in the southern city of Saida. A man displaced from the border villages named Zain says that if Israel’s war in Lebanon morphs into an occupation, it won’t just be Hezbollah fighting back. And if you all know where all the resistance he says.

Clip [00:20:46] We are or the resistance, it’s a sobering end. Greg, you’ve lived in Lebanon. You’ve lived in Beirut. Is Israel biting off more than it can chew? Is it where of how deep the consequences could be?

Clip [00:20:46] We are or the resistance, it’s a sobering end. Greg, you’ve lived in Lebanon. You’ve lived in Beirut. Is Israel biting off more than it can chew? Is it where of how deep the consequences could be?

Gregg Carlstrom [00:20:59] I think the question is what exactly Israel is trying to bypass, and I think we’re not entirely clear on that yet. I think everyone, myself included, has been surprised over the past few weeks at both how deeply Israel seems to have penetrated Hezbollah. And I didn’t expect that Israel would be able to hit it as hard as it has without major retaliation. We haven’t seen the barrages of thousands upon thousands of missiles fired at Tel Aviv that many Israeli generals expected would happen if they went to war in Lebanon. So in one sense, it has been more tactically successful against Hezbollah, more operationally successful than anyone would have anticipated. But the question is how far it wants to go with this this ground invasion that began last week. It has come at a cost. Already there have been some bloody battles for Israeli soldiers in southern Lebanon, and it’s also come at a cost reputationally or politically for Israel, not just in terms of its standing in the West or its standing in the Arab world, but also it has, I think, given Hezbollah a bit of a new lease on life politically, this group that had been quite unpopular with many Lebanese, this group that seemed to be quite incompetent after weeks of being battered by Israel, it is now able to once again posture as being a resistance movement that is fighting off an Israeli invasion of Lebanon. So the immediate benefits of this ground invasion do not seem to outweigh the costs of it for Israel. And there is a risk that the temporary becomes permanent, that Israeli troops wind up occupying parts of Lebanon for a protracted period of time. And that, I think, is going to end up with quite negative consequences for Israel.

Gregg Carlstrom [00:20:59] I think the question is what exactly Israel is trying to bypass, and I think we’re not entirely clear on that yet. I think everyone, myself included, has been surprised over the past few weeks at both how deeply Israel seems to have penetrated Hezbollah. And I didn’t expect that Israel would be able to hit it as hard as it has without major retaliation. We haven’t seen the barrages of thousands upon thousands of missiles fired at Tel Aviv that many Israeli generals expected would happen if they went to war in Lebanon. So in one sense, it has been more tactically successful against Hezbollah, more operationally successful than anyone would have anticipated. But the question is how far it wants to go with this this ground invasion that began last week. It has come at a cost. Already there have been some bloody battles for Israeli soldiers in southern Lebanon, and it’s also come at a cost reputationally or politically for Israel, not just in terms of its standing in the West or its standing in the Arab world, but also it has, I think, given Hezbollah a bit of a new lease on life politically, this group that had been quite unpopular with many Lebanese, this group that seemed to be quite incompetent after weeks of being battered by Israel, it is now able to once again posture as being a resistance movement that is fighting off an Israeli invasion of Lebanon. So the immediate benefits of this ground invasion do not seem to outweigh the costs of it for Israel. And there is a risk that the temporary becomes permanent, that Israeli troops wind up occupying parts of Lebanon for a protracted period of time. And that, I think, is going to end up with quite negative consequences for Israel.

Josie Delap [00:22:52] What is striking with this invasion, as with previous ones, is that the way that the Israelis describe this is a short, sharp blow out to Hezbollah, a quick incursion into Lebanese territory that will allow them to achieve their aims and then get out. And I think what history has shown again and again is that is simply not possible. That doesn’t happen in southern Lebanon, in Lebanon, between Israel and Hezbollah.

Josie Delap [00:22:52] What is striking with this invasion, as with previous ones, is that the way that the Israelis describe this is a short, sharp blow out to Hezbollah, a quick incursion into Lebanese territory that will allow them to achieve their aims and then get out. And I think what history has shown again and again is that is simply not possible. That doesn’t happen in southern Lebanon, in Lebanon, between Israel and Hezbollah.

Rosie Blau [00:23:20] And of course, Iran and Israel now seem to be an inch away from an all out war.

Rosie Blau [00:23:20] And of course, Iran and Israel now seem to be an inch away from an all out war.

Josie Delap [00:23:27] Yes. Last week we saw Iran firing directly on Israel for the second time. The previous attack in April was after Israel had bombed Iran’s embassy compound in Damascus. And at that point, there was a real fear that things were going to escalate far, but that managed to be contained. Now, there is little doubt that Israel is very eager to respond to Iran with far greater magnitude. Whether that involves bombing its nuclear sites, which Netanyahu in particular has long argued for. Israel could target Iran’s infrastructure, in particular its oil infrastructure, or it might target Iran’s leaders in the way that it is going after Hezbollah’s leaders of late. Any of these could lead to a significant escalation between the two countries, which would undoubtedly have a wider regional impact.

Josie Delap [00:23:27] Yes. Last week we saw Iran firing directly on Israel for the second time. The previous attack in April was after Israel had bombed Iran’s embassy compound in Damascus. And at that point, there was a real fear that things were going to escalate far, but that managed to be contained. Now, there is little doubt that Israel is very eager to respond to Iran with far greater magnitude. Whether that involves bombing its nuclear sites, which Netanyahu in particular has long argued for. Israel could target Iran’s infrastructure, in particular its oil infrastructure, or it might target Iran’s leaders in the way that it is going after Hezbollah’s leaders of late. Any of these could lead to a significant escalation between the two countries, which would undoubtedly have a wider regional impact.

Rosie Blau [00:24:25] Before October the 7th. The Middle East was not an entirely happy place. There were lots of people who felt their rights were violated. The territory was occupied, but the status quo was far less violent than this. And we’ve had a year of awful superlatives. We’ve had the worst massacre in Israel’s history. We’ve had the deadliest war in Palestinian history. We’ve had Iran and Israel directly attacking each other and an unprecedented level of political assassinations. Is there any hope for peace in the Middle East?

Rosie Blau [00:24:25] Before October the 7th. The Middle East was not an entirely happy place. There were lots of people who felt their rights were violated. The territory was occupied, but the status quo was far less violent than this. And we’ve had a year of awful superlatives. We’ve had the worst massacre in Israel’s history. We’ve had the deadliest war in Palestinian history. We’ve had Iran and Israel directly attacking each other and an unprecedented level of political assassinations. Is there any hope for peace in the Middle East?

Gregg Carlstrom [00:24:57] It’s unfortunate, but you are rarely wrong. Betting against hope. In the Middle East, we’ve heard, you know, at various points over the past year, optimistic plans are optimistic ideas about how something positive might emerge from all of this. There was a lot of talk like that during the Iraq war about how that was going to birth a new Middle East. There was a lot of talk during the Arab Spring 15 years ago about how something positive was going to emerge from that, and it would be in the Middle East, and that hasn’t worked out. I think, unfortunately, there are still so many forces in this region that are pursuing further conflict, that are pursuing escalation that often for very self-interested reasons. They are uninterested in diplomacy. And I think it is those forces that have driven events for the past year and those forces that will continue to.

Gregg Carlstrom [00:24:57] It’s unfortunate, but you are rarely wrong. Betting against hope. In the Middle East, we’ve heard, you know, at various points over the past year, optimistic plans are optimistic ideas about how something positive might emerge from all of this. There was a lot of talk like that during the Iraq war about how that was going to birth a new Middle East. There was a lot of talk during the Arab Spring 15 years ago about how something positive was going to emerge from that, and it would be in the Middle East, and that hasn’t worked out. I think, unfortunately, there are still so many forces in this region that are pursuing further conflict, that are pursuing escalation that often for very self-interested reasons. They are uninterested in diplomacy. And I think it is those forces that have driven events for the past year and those forces that will continue to.

Josie Delap [00:25:49] Like Greg, I am not optimistic. I think after October the 7th, there was a moment where people thought that out of this absolute horror, out of what was happening already in Gaza, perhaps the sheer level of destruction could force people to accept that they couldn’t live with the status quo, that there had to be some kind of settlement. And I think there was a moment after some of the recent attacks against Hezbollah where it seemed that that moment perhaps could come again from a different angle, because Israel was unlike after October the 7th, in a position of strength, that it perhaps could negotiate from that place towards some kind of end to this conflict. That looks incredibly unlikely now. And I think the contrast between those two things, the fact that we have had a moment where Israel seemed at its most vulnerable and another moment where it seems arguably very strong and out of neither of those moments do we see much possibility for peace. That’s incredibly depressing and sobering.

Josie Delap [00:25:49] Like Greg, I am not optimistic. I think after October the 7th, there was a moment where people thought that out of this absolute horror, out of what was happening already in Gaza, perhaps the sheer level of destruction could force people to accept that they couldn’t live with the status quo, that there had to be some kind of settlement. And I think there was a moment after some of the recent attacks against Hezbollah where it seemed that that moment perhaps could come again from a different angle, because Israel was unlike after October the 7th, in a position of strength, that it perhaps could negotiate from that place towards some kind of end to this conflict. That looks incredibly unlikely now. And I think the contrast between those two things, the fact that we have had a moment where Israel seemed at its most vulnerable and another moment where it seems arguably very strong and out of neither of those moments do we see much possibility for peace. That’s incredibly depressing and sobering.

Rosie Blau [00:26:55] Josie, Greg, thank you so much for talking to me today.

Rosie Blau [00:26:55] Josie, Greg, thank you so much for talking to me today.

Gregg Carlstrom [00:27:00] Thank you, Rosie.

Gregg Carlstrom [00:27:00] Thank you, Rosie.

Rosie Blau [00:27:08] That’s all for this episode of the Intelligence. Do let us know what you think of the show. You can get in touch at podcasts@economist.com. We’ll see you back here tomorrow.

Rosie Blau [00:27:08] That’s all for this episode of the Intelligence. Do let us know what you think of the show. You can get in touch at podcasts@economist.com. We’ll see you back here tomorrow.

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