Also on the daily podcast: could immigration swing Arizona and Sally Rooney matures

Will China’s stimulus package jump-start the economy?

The Intelligence - Will China’s stimulus package jump-start the economy? | Podcasts | The Economist

Yuan for the money: China stimulates its economy

Pedestrians along the Bund across from commercial buildings in Pudong's Lujiazui Financial District in Shanghai, China

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After years of slowing growth, the Chinese government is finally attempting to bolster consumer demand, business confidence and the stock market. Our correspondent analyses the surprise shift in policy (10:25). How will immigration policy play with swing voters in Arizona? And Sally Rooney, a modern-day Jane Austen with a dash of S&M (19:35). Runtime: 26 min

After years of slowing growth, the Chinese government is <a href="https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2024/09/27/at-last-china-pulls-the-trigger-on-a-bold-stimulus-package?utm_campaign=a.io&utm_medium=audio.podcast.np&utm_source=theintelligence&utm_content=discovery.content.anonymous.tr_shownotes_na-na_article&utm_term=sa.listeners" target="_blank">finally attempting to bolster</a> consumer demand, business confidence and the stock market. Our correspondent analyses the surprise shift in policy (10:25). How will immigration policy play with <a href="https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-2024-election/prediction-model/president/arizona?utm_campaign=a.io&utm_medium=audio.podcast.np&utm_source=theintelligence&utm_content=discovery.content.anonymous.tr_shownotes_na-na_article&utm_term=sa.listeners" target="_blank">swing voters in Arizona</a>? And <a href="https://www.economist.com/culture/2024/09/20/sally-rooney-shows-how-to-escape-the-trap-of-success?utm_campaign=a.io&utm_medium=audio.podcast.np&utm_source=theintelligence&utm_content=discovery.content.anonymous.tr_shownotes_na-na_article&utm_term=sa.listeners" target="_blank">Sally Rooney</a>, a modern-day Jane Austen with a dash of S&M (19:35). Runtime: 26 min

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The Intelligence 

Will China’s stimulus package jump-start the economy? 

The Intelligence

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Rosie Blau [00:00:10] Hello and welcome to the intelligence from The Economist. I’m your host, Rosie Bloor. Every weekday, we provide a fresh perspective on the events shaping your world. The U.S. election is so close that the result in a few key states could decide its outcome. As part of our series on these swing states today, we travel deep into Arizona and you could call her style Jane Austen in modern Ireland with a dash of S&M. That, at least, is our correspondence assessment of Sally Rooney, whose new book Intermezzo, is her richest work yet. At first. This is a golden week in China, celebrating a special day in a special year. Chinese soldiers raise flags over Tiananmen Square to commemorate the country’s national day. When Mao Zedong declared the People’s Republic. And this anniversary is particularly special because it marks 75 years of Chinese Communist Party rule, a span that has been marked by extreme repression, iron control and enormous progress. It’s a combination that today’s leaders continue to execute all at the same time. But this year’s weeklong holiday comes amid signs that Xi Jinping is finally winding up to the fact that his country’s economy is no longer quite so golden. Central bank officials have unveiled new stimulus plans that have sent the markets upwards.

Rosie Blau [00:00:10] Hello and welcome to the intelligence from The Economist. I’m your host, Rosie Bloor. Every weekday, we provide a fresh perspective on the events shaping your world. The U.S. election is so close that the result in a few key states could decide its outcome. As part of our series on these swing states today, we travel deep into Arizona and you could call her style Jane Austen in modern Ireland with a dash of S&M. That, at least, is our correspondence assessment of Sally Rooney, whose new book Intermezzo, is her richest work yet. At first. This is a golden week in China, celebrating a special day in a special year. Chinese soldiers raise flags over Tiananmen Square to commemorate the country’s national day. When Mao Zedong declared the People’s Republic. And this anniversary is particularly special because it marks 75 years of Chinese Communist Party rule, a span that has been marked by extreme repression, iron control and enormous progress. It’s a combination that today’s leaders continue to execute all at the same time. But this year’s weeklong holiday comes amid signs that Xi Jinping is finally winding up to the fact that his country’s economy is no longer quite so golden. Central bank officials have unveiled new stimulus plans that have sent the markets upwards.

Clip [00:02:06] You can hear gold.

Rosie Blau [00:02:09] Chocolate. And news has leaked a further easing measures expected soon.

Rosie Blau [00:02:09] Chocolate. And news has leaked a further easing measures expected soon.

Simon Cox [00:02:13] China is belatedly responding to the downturn in its economy with aggressive easing.

Simon Cox [00:02:13] China is belatedly responding to the downturn in its economy with aggressive easing.

Rosie Blau [00:02:19] Simon Cox is our China economics editor.

Rosie Blau [00:02:19] Simon Cox is our China economics editor.

Simon Cox [00:02:22] Including cuts in interest rates and what looks to be a new fiscal policy that will include help for consumers and help for families, which marks a big shift in thinking for Xi Jinping, who has previously seen complacent about deflation and reluctant to hand out public money to consumers.

Simon Cox [00:02:22] Including cuts in interest rates and what looks to be a new fiscal policy that will include help for consumers and help for families, which marks a big shift in thinking for Xi Jinping, who has previously seen complacent about deflation and reluctant to hand out public money to consumers.

Rosie Blau [00:02:44] Simon You say this is somewhat belatedly. Explain the timing. Why is this happening now?

Rosie Blau [00:02:44] Simon You say this is somewhat belatedly. Explain the timing. Why is this happening now?

Simon Cox [00:02:50] So it’s easy to explain why interest rates have been cut where there’s been a monetary response. America’s Federal Reserve, America’s central bank cut interest rates, and that has removed some of the pressure on China’s own currency. That gives China’s central bank a little bit more room to move. The other measures, it’s harder to say what exactly has prompted the shift. It’s probably accumulation of bad news, in particular on the local government side. Revenues have been coming in short and as a result, spending has been curtailed. And so this year, in which fiscal policy was supposed to support growth in spending and tax cuts, we’ve actually had the opposite because of the unforeseen shortfalls in revenue, especially from land and tax revenue. We’ve actually had a sort of unforeseen inadvertent fiscal tightening, and that is beginning to really cut through and social services are beginning to be threatened. And we’re also beginning to see some damage to the labour market. And that will prompt the government to to act. They can’t afford jobs to fail too badly.

Simon Cox [00:02:50] So it’s easy to explain why interest rates have been cut where there’s been a monetary response. America’s Federal Reserve, America’s central bank cut interest rates, and that has removed some of the pressure on China’s own currency. That gives China’s central bank a little bit more room to move. The other measures, it’s harder to say what exactly has prompted the shift. It’s probably accumulation of bad news, in particular on the local government side. Revenues have been coming in short and as a result, spending has been curtailed. And so this year, in which fiscal policy was supposed to support growth in spending and tax cuts, we’ve actually had the opposite because of the unforeseen shortfalls in revenue, especially from land and tax revenue. We’ve actually had a sort of unforeseen inadvertent fiscal tightening, and that is beginning to really cut through and social services are beginning to be threatened. And we’re also beginning to see some damage to the labour market. And that will prompt the government to to act. They can’t afford jobs to fail too badly.

Rosie Blau [00:03:55] Simon Explain to me how big a shift this is for Xi Jinping.

Rosie Blau [00:03:55] Simon Explain to me how big a shift this is for Xi Jinping.

Simon Cox [00:03:59] It seems quite big to me, both the style of the stimulus, the form it’s likely to take and also the urgency with which they’re tackling these problems, because these problems aren’t new. I mean, deflation has been there for 18 months. The property crisis started three years ago, and people have been surprised and a bit baffled by the reluctance to act more decisively. I think in the early years there was a view that some of these problems were contained, localised, transitory. More recently, I think there’s just been a fear that it’ll be too expensive to deal with these problems, but actually allowing them to fester is more costly than anything else. And a style of stimulus helping consumers directly is not something that sits comfortably with a party that sees itself as austere, self-sacrificing in pursuit of larger national goals, and helping people indulge themselves and gratify their consumer desires doesn’t fit neatly with that broader ideological mindset. They would rather be spending this money on 5G towers or fancy facilities for manufacturing.

Simon Cox [00:03:59] It seems quite big to me, both the style of the stimulus, the form it’s likely to take and also the urgency with which they’re tackling these problems, because these problems aren’t new. I mean, deflation has been there for 18 months. The property crisis started three years ago, and people have been surprised and a bit baffled by the reluctance to act more decisively. I think in the early years there was a view that some of these problems were contained, localised, transitory. More recently, I think there’s just been a fear that it’ll be too expensive to deal with these problems, but actually allowing them to fester is more costly than anything else. And a style of stimulus helping consumers directly is not something that sits comfortably with a party that sees itself as austere, self-sacrificing in pursuit of larger national goals, and helping people indulge themselves and gratify their consumer desires doesn’t fit neatly with that broader ideological mindset. They would rather be spending this money on 5G towers or fancy facilities for manufacturing.

Rosie Blau [00:05:05] Okay, let’s talk about the specifics. Tell me, first of all, about this idea of cash payments.

Rosie Blau [00:05:05] Okay, let’s talk about the specifics. Tell me, first of all, about this idea of cash payments.

Simon Cox [00:05:11] So cash payments is something that reportedly Xi Jinping has been quite resistant to. He doesn’t like the idea of just posting cheques to consumers for them to spend willy nilly. It’s a strain of fiscal conservatism that runs to China’s Communist Party. He also worries that expanding a welfare state too early in China’s development will breed laziness and breed welfare dependency. And what’s perhaps most exciting about it is this idea that they would provide handouts not to everybody, but to families that have two or more children and you would get one check per kid above your first. And so this may be one way to disguise a stimulus as achieving a greater national goal of raising China’s birthrate and offsetting some of its demographic decline.

Simon Cox [00:05:11] So cash payments is something that reportedly Xi Jinping has been quite resistant to. He doesn’t like the idea of just posting cheques to consumers for them to spend willy nilly. It’s a strain of fiscal conservatism that runs to China’s Communist Party. He also worries that expanding a welfare state too early in China’s development will breed laziness and breed welfare dependency. And what’s perhaps most exciting about it is this idea that they would provide handouts not to everybody, but to families that have two or more children and you would get one check per kid above your first. And so this may be one way to disguise a stimulus as achieving a greater national goal of raising China’s birthrate and offsetting some of its demographic decline.

Rosie Blau [00:05:59] It’s a fascinating situation where you want to disguise your stimulus. What about the push on the stock market?

Rosie Blau [00:05:59] It’s a fascinating situation where you want to disguise your stimulus. What about the push on the stock market?

Simon Cox [00:06:05] Ever since that press conference in which the central bank, flanked by two financial regulators, said it would introduce these two facilities to help companies buy back their own shares and to help various institutional investors to borrow funds to invest in the stock market. That has been like a starting gun for a remarkable stock market rally. Shares racing upwards both on the mainland and in Hong Kong. This is a slightly sort of. Q The policy choice you normally you would expect a government to try and support the fundamentals of the economy and to hope that that would then reflect back in the stock market. But here they’re really sort of using the tail of the dog to wag the dog. They’re stimulating that stock prices immediately in the hope that that will lift confidence and perhaps dispel some of the gloom that’s descended on the private sector in China.

Simon Cox [00:06:05] Ever since that press conference in which the central bank, flanked by two financial regulators, said it would introduce these two facilities to help companies buy back their own shares and to help various institutional investors to borrow funds to invest in the stock market. That has been like a starting gun for a remarkable stock market rally. Shares racing upwards both on the mainland and in Hong Kong. This is a slightly sort of. Q The policy choice you normally you would expect a government to try and support the fundamentals of the economy and to hope that that would then reflect back in the stock market. But here they’re really sort of using the tail of the dog to wag the dog. They’re stimulating that stock prices immediately in the hope that that will lift confidence and perhaps dispel some of the gloom that’s descended on the private sector in China.

Rosie Blau [00:06:54] And aside from the dizzying rise in stock prices. How successful might this other package of stimulus be?

Rosie Blau [00:06:54] And aside from the dizzying rise in stock prices. How successful might this other package of stimulus be?

Simon Cox [00:07:01] Again, we don’t have anything official yet, but it’s certainly along the right lines. So qualitatively in its design and its priorities, it seems about right. We should be getting more direct help to households. There’s a lot of room for additional spending. The old style stimulus in which you just have public investment in the infrastructure that feels played out. There’s also an element of this package that will support local governments that are in some quite tight fiscal straits, in particular with very large debts they’re struggling to repay. And that’s led them to do things like chasing companies for tax arrears or imposing fees somewhat arbitrarily, all of which has damaged the business environment and it hurt the economy. The problem is thus far, it doesn’t look big enough. Basically, what we’ve seen is reports that there will be ¥1 trillion of bonds issued to help local governments and there’ll be another trillion to help consumers. That adds up to about 1.5% of GDP. We probably need something quite a bit bigger than that. I’ve seen people talk about packages that would be more like 2 or 3% of GDP over two years, something more like 7 trillion rather than 1 or 2 trillion. ¥7 trillion is about $1 trillion.

Simon Cox [00:07:01] Again, we don’t have anything official yet, but it’s certainly along the right lines. So qualitatively in its design and its priorities, it seems about right. We should be getting more direct help to households. There’s a lot of room for additional spending. The old style stimulus in which you just have public investment in the infrastructure that feels played out. There’s also an element of this package that will support local governments that are in some quite tight fiscal straits, in particular with very large debts they’re struggling to repay. And that’s led them to do things like chasing companies for tax arrears or imposing fees somewhat arbitrarily, all of which has damaged the business environment and it hurt the economy. The problem is thus far, it doesn’t look big enough. Basically, what we’ve seen is reports that there will be ¥1 trillion of bonds issued to help local governments and there’ll be another trillion to help consumers. That adds up to about 1.5% of GDP. We probably need something quite a bit bigger than that. I’ve seen people talk about packages that would be more like 2 or 3% of GDP over two years, something more like 7 trillion rather than 1 or 2 trillion. ¥7 trillion is about $1 trillion.

Rosie Blau [00:08:18] Whenever anyone’s looking at the Chinese economy, they’ve also got an eye on the global economy. How much effect might this have beyond China?

Rosie Blau [00:08:18] Whenever anyone’s looking at the Chinese economy, they’ve also got an eye on the global economy. How much effect might this have beyond China?

Simon Cox [00:08:26] So again, it’s early days. We don’t yet know what impact it will have on China itself, let alone looking beyond China’s borders. But it’s in a promising direction. We’ve already seen a response in commodity prices. So, for example, steel prices jumped after the first round of the package. We’ve had a lot of complaints from China’s trading partners about a flood of cars, electric vehicles, old internal combustion engine cars. A lot of complaints about overcapacity. And some of that reflects rather specific subsidies and industrial policies that China has pursued. But it also reflects just the weakness of China’s domestic demand. If China’s own consumers are exercising restraint, you have to turn to foreign customers in order to clear your stocks of excess inventory. If China’s consumers come out of their shell a little bit, then that will alleviate that problem. Indeed, one of the programs that China’s probably going to expand and support is this trade in program, which is supposed to encourage people to trade in their older electric vehicles or their older internal combustion engine cars for newer, fancier models or trade in their old consumer appliances for fancier, greener models. There’s been talk about buying smart toilets and things like that, all part of this sort of national goal of boosting China’s economy and making it a more sophisticated economy, at the same time.

Simon Cox [00:08:26] So again, it’s early days. We don’t yet know what impact it will have on China itself, let alone looking beyond China’s borders. But it’s in a promising direction. We’ve already seen a response in commodity prices. So, for example, steel prices jumped after the first round of the package. We’ve had a lot of complaints from China’s trading partners about a flood of cars, electric vehicles, old internal combustion engine cars. A lot of complaints about overcapacity. And some of that reflects rather specific subsidies and industrial policies that China has pursued. But it also reflects just the weakness of China’s domestic demand. If China’s own consumers are exercising restraint, you have to turn to foreign customers in order to clear your stocks of excess inventory. If China’s consumers come out of their shell a little bit, then that will alleviate that problem. Indeed, one of the programs that China’s probably going to expand and support is this trade in program, which is supposed to encourage people to trade in their older electric vehicles or their older internal combustion engine cars for newer, fancier models or trade in their old consumer appliances for fancier, greener models. There’s been talk about buying smart toilets and things like that, all part of this sort of national goal of boosting China’s economy and making it a more sophisticated economy, at the same time.

Rosie Blau [00:09:51] Boosting its bottom line. Simon, thank you so much. Great to talk to you.

Rosie Blau [00:09:51] Boosting its bottom line. Simon, thank you so much. Great to talk to you.

Simon Cox [00:09:55] AG Thanks very much.

Simon Cox [00:09:55] AG Thanks very much.

Rosie Blau [00:09:58] And to hear about a very different side of China, do listen to Drum Tower, our China podcast, which has just aired a two part interview with Michael Kovrig, a Canadian former diplomat who was imprisoned by the Chinese government for nearly three years. It’s an incredible story told to us for the first time.

Rosie Blau [00:09:58] And to hear about a very different side of China, do listen to Drum Tower, our China podcast, which has just aired a two part interview with Michael Kovrig, a Canadian former diplomat who was imprisoned by the Chinese government for nearly three years. It’s an incredible story told to us for the first time.

Clip [00:10:25] The Fox News decision desk is calling Arizona for Joe Biden. That is a big get for the Biden campaign.

Clip [00:10:25] The Fox News decision desk is calling Arizona for Joe Biden. That is a big get for the Biden campaign.

Rosie Blau [00:10:34] It’s also signal in 2020 Democrats got a surprise result in Arizona.

Rosie Blau [00:10:34] It’s also signal in 2020 Democrats got a surprise result in Arizona.

Clip [00:10:40] Nasty one of them it’s only there. But Biden picking up Arizona changes the math and it is the first of the night.

Clip [00:10:40] Nasty one of them it’s only there. But Biden picking up Arizona changes the math and it is the first of the night.

Rosie Blau [00:10:47] The state known for its freewheeling libertarianism, voted for Joe Biden for president. Since then, Democrats have also won the governorship and held both Senate seats, a feat not accomplished in Arizona for more than 70 years. Much of that swing came down to the Democratic tilt of Arizona’s biggest county, where many Latino voters live. But Democrats may not do as well this time. As part of a series on the swing states that will decide America’s presidential election. Today, we’re delving into Arizona and the voters there who could determine whether the state stays blue or switches to red.

Rosie Blau [00:10:47] The state known for its freewheeling libertarianism, voted for Joe Biden for president. Since then, Democrats have also won the governorship and held both Senate seats, a feat not accomplished in Arizona for more than 70 years. Much of that swing came down to the Democratic tilt of Arizona’s biggest county, where many Latino voters live. But Democrats may not do as well this time. As part of a series on the swing states that will decide America’s presidential election. Today, we’re delving into Arizona and the voters there who could determine whether the state stays blue or switches to red.

Aryn Braun [00:11:29] Arizona is actually a very recent swing state.

Aryn Braun [00:11:29] Arizona is actually a very recent swing state.

Rosie Blau [00:11:33] Aaron Brown is our West Coast correspondent.

Rosie Blau [00:11:33] Aaron Brown is our West Coast correspondent.

Aryn Braun [00:11:36] If we think about 2020, Joe Biden only won Arizona by about 10,000 votes. So that’s a really tiny margin. The state only has 11 electoral votes. So it’s definitely not one of the kind of heavy hitters like Pennsylvania or Georgia. But if you think about what, for example, Kamala Harris needs to do to win the election, if she didn’t win the kind of Rust Belt states of Pennsylvania and Michigan and Wisconsin, then Arizona could prove incredibly decisive.

Aryn Braun [00:11:36] If we think about 2020, Joe Biden only won Arizona by about 10,000 votes. So that’s a really tiny margin. The state only has 11 electoral votes. So it’s definitely not one of the kind of heavy hitters like Pennsylvania or Georgia. But if you think about what, for example, Kamala Harris needs to do to win the election, if she didn’t win the kind of Rust Belt states of Pennsylvania and Michigan and Wisconsin, then Arizona could prove incredibly decisive.

Rosie Blau [00:12:06] So which groups will decide the election in Arizona this time?

Rosie Blau [00:12:06] So which groups will decide the election in Arizona this time?

Aryn Braun [00:12:10] Well, Arizona, despite the fact that it now has a Democratic governor and two senators, it’s still quite a Republican state. There are still more registered Republicans than Democrats, and there’s a big chunk of independents. Now, there’s one region of Arizona in particular that is going to matter more than the rest of the state for electoral purposes, and that is Maricopa County, which includes Phoenix, which is the state capital. It’s the biggest city in the state. And more than half of the state’s registered voters live in this one county. In 2020, Joe Biden won Maricopa by 45,000 votes, and that is the reason why he won the state. And then there are some groups that will be important in Arizona, like other swing states, female voters and suburban voters. Mormons play an outsized role in Arizona politics as well. But the demographic that will be really interesting to look at this year are Latino voters. Arizona has the highest share of Latino voters among any of the swing states, and Latinos are one of the fastest growing minorities in America. They still prefer Democrats by pretty large margins. But in recent years, Trump has managed to peel off some Latino voters. If you think about 2020, Joe Biden did better than Donald Trump among Latinos. But Trump gained among all kind of sub demographic groups, especially Latinos, without a college degree and younger voters. But what’s really interesting about Arizona in particular is that Latinos here are swinging to the right much slower than elsewhere. So had Trump performed among Latino voters in Arizona in 2020 like he did nationally, he would have won the state.

Aryn Braun [00:12:10] Well, Arizona, despite the fact that it now has a Democratic governor and two senators, it’s still quite a Republican state. There are still more registered Republicans than Democrats, and there’s a big chunk of independents. Now, there’s one region of Arizona in particular that is going to matter more than the rest of the state for electoral purposes, and that is Maricopa County, which includes Phoenix, which is the state capital. It’s the biggest city in the state. And more than half of the state’s registered voters live in this one county. In 2020, Joe Biden won Maricopa by 45,000 votes, and that is the reason why he won the state. And then there are some groups that will be important in Arizona, like other swing states, female voters and suburban voters. Mormons play an outsized role in Arizona politics as well. But the demographic that will be really interesting to look at this year are Latino voters. Arizona has the highest share of Latino voters among any of the swing states, and Latinos are one of the fastest growing minorities in America. They still prefer Democrats by pretty large margins. But in recent years, Trump has managed to peel off some Latino voters. If you think about 2020, Joe Biden did better than Donald Trump among Latinos. But Trump gained among all kind of sub demographic groups, especially Latinos, without a college degree and younger voters. But what’s really interesting about Arizona in particular is that Latinos here are swinging to the right much slower than elsewhere. So had Trump performed among Latino voters in Arizona in 2020 like he did nationally, he would have won the state.

Rosie Blau [00:13:58] So, Aaron, why Arizona’s Latinos behaving so differently?

Rosie Blau [00:13:58] So, Aaron, why Arizona’s Latinos behaving so differently?

Aryn Braun [00:14:03] Arizona is the only swing state that is also a border state. And being on the border has made it a flashpoint for debates about immigration for decades. And there’s two really good examples of this from recent political history. The first is that Maricopa County in particular actually was home to Joe Arpaio and he was, quote unquote, America’s toughest sheriff. He ran the county sheriff’s office for something like 25 years. And he held these traffic stops that targeted immigrants. He was eventually sued for racial profiling. And more recently, he’s been campaigning for Donald Trump. And then you have Senate Bill 1070, which was a law passed in 2010. It required police to ask people they suspected of being an unauthorised immigrant to provide proof of their illegal immigration status. Now, Joe Arpaio was voted out in 2016, and part of that law was struck down by the Supreme Court. But one of the ways that Democrats in Arizona were able to convince Latinos to come out and vote for them was by campaigning against this really aggressive approach to immigration enforcement.

Aryn Braun [00:14:03] Arizona is the only swing state that is also a border state. And being on the border has made it a flashpoint for debates about immigration for decades. And there’s two really good examples of this from recent political history. The first is that Maricopa County in particular actually was home to Joe Arpaio and he was, quote unquote, America’s toughest sheriff. He ran the county sheriff’s office for something like 25 years. And he held these traffic stops that targeted immigrants. He was eventually sued for racial profiling. And more recently, he’s been campaigning for Donald Trump. And then you have Senate Bill 1070, which was a law passed in 2010. It required police to ask people they suspected of being an unauthorised immigrant to provide proof of their illegal immigration status. Now, Joe Arpaio was voted out in 2016, and part of that law was struck down by the Supreme Court. But one of the ways that Democrats in Arizona were able to convince Latinos to come out and vote for them was by campaigning against this really aggressive approach to immigration enforcement.

Rosie Blau [00:15:16] And is immigration likely to be such a strong force this time as well amongst Latinos?

Rosie Blau [00:15:16] And is immigration likely to be such a strong force this time as well amongst Latinos?

Aryn Braun [00:15:22] Immigration is one of the most important issues in this presidential election. But it’s unclear whether this strategy from Democrats will make a difference this time around. So The Economist’s presidential forecast model has Trump very narrowly ahead in the state. But the race is basically a toss up. And if you look at recent polling, Kamala Harris is not getting the same level of support among Latino voters that Joe Biden did in 2020, and this could be extremely detrimental to her campaign. Research suggests that conflicted Latino voters are people who still aren’t sure who they’re going to vote for, still tend to break for Democrats in the end. But it’s been a while since Joe Arpaio has left office. And since Senate Bill 1070 is passed, young voters in particular won’t have those political memories. So they won’t be voting based on the memories of those policies. And really importantly, Latino voters in Arizona who care about a lot more than just immigration. They’re voting on the memory of high inflation and high housing costs in Arizona and abortion. But if we do stick with immigration policy for a moment, polling of Latino voters in Arizona suggests that they favour both a path to citizenship and securing the border. And in the past, neither major political party really spoke to both of those desires. And we’re seeing that change manifestly in the way that Kamala Harris has begun to run her campaign.

Aryn Braun [00:15:22] Immigration is one of the most important issues in this presidential election. But it’s unclear whether this strategy from Democrats will make a difference this time around. So The Economist’s presidential forecast model has Trump very narrowly ahead in the state. But the race is basically a toss up. And if you look at recent polling, Kamala Harris is not getting the same level of support among Latino voters that Joe Biden did in 2020, and this could be extremely detrimental to her campaign. Research suggests that conflicted Latino voters are people who still aren’t sure who they’re going to vote for, still tend to break for Democrats in the end. But it’s been a while since Joe Arpaio has left office. And since Senate Bill 1070 is passed, young voters in particular won’t have those political memories. So they won’t be voting based on the memories of those policies. And really importantly, Latino voters in Arizona who care about a lot more than just immigration. They’re voting on the memory of high inflation and high housing costs in Arizona and abortion. But if we do stick with immigration policy for a moment, polling of Latino voters in Arizona suggests that they favour both a path to citizenship and securing the border. And in the past, neither major political party really spoke to both of those desires. And we’re seeing that change manifestly in the way that Kamala Harris has begun to run her campaign.

Rosie Blau [00:16:52] So what is Kamala Harris saying that’s changing that in Arizona?

Rosie Blau [00:16:52] So what is Kamala Harris saying that’s changing that in Arizona?

Aryn Braun [00:16:56] Last week, Kamala Harris made one of the biggest, if not the biggest immigration speeches of her campaign so far. And she laid out this really tough on border security stance.

Aryn Braun [00:16:56] Last week, Kamala Harris made one of the biggest, if not the biggest immigration speeches of her campaign so far. And she laid out this really tough on border security stance.

Rosie Blau [00:17:08] And if someone does not make an asylum request at a legal point of entry and instead crosses our border unlawfully, they will be barred from receiving asylum.

Rosie Blau [00:17:08] And if someone does not make an asylum request at a legal point of entry and instead crosses our border unlawfully, they will be barred from receiving asylum.

Aryn Braun [00:17:22] And what’s interesting, if you think about this speech in an Arizona context, is that Democrats in Arizona have been talking tough on the border for years. At this point, it really was Joe Biden and Kamala Harris taking cues from them that got them to this tougher stance in the first place.

Aryn Braun [00:17:22] And what’s interesting, if you think about this speech in an Arizona context, is that Democrats in Arizona have been talking tough on the border for years. At this point, it really was Joe Biden and Kamala Harris taking cues from them that got them to this tougher stance in the first place.

Rosie Blau [00:17:41] So we keep hearing about Harris and immigration, but what does this tell us about how it will play in the in the campaign more broadly?

Rosie Blau [00:17:41] So we keep hearing about Harris and immigration, but what does this tell us about how it will play in the in the campaign more broadly?

Aryn Braun [00:17:49] I think listening to the speech, she knows that immigration is a huge political liability for Democrats. If you think about Donald Trump’s first campaign, which he launched in 2015, he manufactured a crisis about the border. But in the past couple of years, he did not need to do that. There really were a record number of migrant encounters at the southern border in 2023. Kamala Harris was tasked with addressing the root causes of migration to Central America in 2021. And Republicans have used this to brand her as Biden’s borders are and blame her for the large number of people coming across the southern border. And I think this is one of the reasons why we have seen her go on offence and deliver such a tough speech, this incredible turn that Democrats have taken on border security in the last 18 months or so is really an admission that Donald Trump was winning on the issue. You know, not only is Kamala Harris endorsing the Biden administration’s crackdown on asylum, she’s saying she agrees with making that crackdown harder to lift. And that’s something the administration did this week. It’s extremely telling that she made this speech in Arizona, both a crucial swing state and a border state. And it’s by no means the last time that we’re going to hear Kamala Harris talking about immigration on the campaign trail.

Aryn Braun [00:17:49] I think listening to the speech, she knows that immigration is a huge political liability for Democrats. If you think about Donald Trump’s first campaign, which he launched in 2015, he manufactured a crisis about the border. But in the past couple of years, he did not need to do that. There really were a record number of migrant encounters at the southern border in 2023. Kamala Harris was tasked with addressing the root causes of migration to Central America in 2021. And Republicans have used this to brand her as Biden’s borders are and blame her for the large number of people coming across the southern border. And I think this is one of the reasons why we have seen her go on offence and deliver such a tough speech, this incredible turn that Democrats have taken on border security in the last 18 months or so is really an admission that Donald Trump was winning on the issue. You know, not only is Kamala Harris endorsing the Biden administration’s crackdown on asylum, she’s saying she agrees with making that crackdown harder to lift. And that’s something the administration did this week. It’s extremely telling that she made this speech in Arizona, both a crucial swing state and a border state. And it’s by no means the last time that we’re going to hear Kamala Harris talking about immigration on the campaign trail.

Rosie Blau [00:19:10] And it’s fascinating stuff. Thanks so much for talking to us.

Rosie Blau [00:19:10] And it’s fascinating stuff. Thanks so much for talking to us.

Aryn Braun [00:19:13] Thank you, Rosie.

Rosie Blau [00:19:16] And for more on the swing states this Friday, Checks and Balance US Politics podcast will be looking at Pennsylvania. You’ll need to be a subscriber to listen.

Rosie Blau [00:19:16] And for more on the swing states this Friday, Checks and Balance US Politics podcast will be looking at Pennsylvania. You’ll need to be a subscriber to listen.

Andrew Miller [00:19:40] Even if you’ve not read any of the books by the Irish author Sally Rooney, it’s likely you’ve heard of her novels.

Andrew Miller [00:19:40] Even if you’ve not read any of the books by the Irish author Sally Rooney, it’s likely you’ve heard of her novels.

Rosie Blau [00:19:48] Andrew Miller writes the Economist’s Back Story column.

Rosie Blau [00:19:48] Andrew Miller writes the Economist’s Back Story column.

Andrew Miller [00:19:53] Her debut Conversations with Friends was adapted for television in 2022.

Andrew Miller [00:19:53] Her debut Conversations with Friends was adapted for television in 2022.

Aryn Braun [00:19:58] I don’t want to hurt your marriage, that’s all.

Aryn Braun [00:19:58] I don’t want to hurt your marriage, that’s all.

Andrew Miller [00:20:03] My marriage is five separate affairs already.

Andrew Miller [00:20:03] My marriage is five separate affairs already.

Andrew Miller [00:20:08] I’ve just never been party to them. Her second novel, Normal People, became a TV series a couple of years earlier in 2020.

Andrew Miller [00:20:08] I’ve just never been party to them. Her second novel, Normal People, became a TV series a couple of years earlier in 2020.

Rosie Blau [00:20:16] I’ve missed you.

Andrew Miller [00:20:18] Yeah, you too. Intermezzo Bruni’s fourth and latest novel was published at the end of September. Lots of its themes and motifs will be familiar to her many worldwide fans. Once again, she chronicles the friendships and romances of millennials with a grave moral seriousness and quite a lot of sex. You could call her style Jane Austen in modern Ireland with a dash of S&M. But I think in this book, her best, Rooney has broken free of the creative trap that literary success of the kind trees enjoyed can set. Intermezzo is the story of Ivan in Pizza, Quebec. Ivan is a 22 year old socially awkward chess whiz who falls in love with an older woman, Margaret. She’s 36, and she’s recently escaped from an alcoholic husband. Peter is a decade older than his brother, Ivan. He’s a barrister and seemingly has all the swagger and success that Ivan lacks. He’s devoted to his ex, Sylvia, but he’s also having an age gap affair of his own with a young woman called Naomi. Like the characters in Rooney’s previous novels, Bobby and Francis from Conversations with Friends, or Connell and Marianne from Normal People. The characters here are highly intelligent and educated, but they struggle to articulate their feelings and so they wind up causing pain when they really want to be kind and sabotaging their own relationships. People aren’t always very nice to the people they love, says Margaret. A line that I think could be the motto of Rooney’s entire for again in this book. She captures the swirl of power in relationships and in the course of conversations, beautifully rendering the rhythms and instant regrets of dialogue. Once again, money gets in the way and her account is long, both to be normal, whatever that means, and also to defy convention. But for all these echoes of Rooney’s previous work, I think this is her richest book. Two traumas lie at the heart of intermezzo. One of them is that Sylvia, Peter’s ex, has been very badly injured in a car crash. And the other is that the brothers, Peter and Ivan, have recently buried their dad. And grief is a bridge between them, but it’s also a chasm. The loss is hard on Ivan because he was very close to his father. And it’s hard on Peter because he wasn’t. The main difference, though, between this book and its predecessors is that the central bond and tension in it is not romantic, but fraternal. I think a lot of readers will recognise the dynamic between the brothers. The older one, Peter, is unable to recognise that little Ivan has grown up, whilst Ivan resents Big Brother Peter’s condescension but doesn’t want to recognise his weaknesses and vulnerability. And the book skilfully conveys that sense of being trapped in childhood roles that actually you’ve long outgrown. Ivan tells Peter that he hates him. Yet they share childhood experiences and memories that only they can grasp. As a reader, you sympathise with both of them and hope they can find a way to forgive each other. There’s another departure from Rooney’s previous work. The bits of the book that come from Peter’s point of view are written in a kind of staccato stream of consciousness, as if grammar were breaking down under the weight of his depression. Now, this is a technique pioneered by another Irish novelist, James Joyce, a century ago, and in the best bits it effectively mimics the thoughts and dilemma of a fractured mind. But over long passages, I think it becomes risky and some readers will appreciate it more than others. Writers who become as famous and successful as Rooney did at a very young age. He still dressed 33, faced a couple of contradictory pressures. A lot of people want them to do the same thing again, to write books similar to the ones that pleased so many readers before. And at the same time, I think writers have an instinct to do something different and show that they can, and they’ve got a wider range. This is a challenge which in Rooney’s third book, Beautiful World, Where are you? I think she struggled with. And that, to my mind, is the weakest of her four books. But now in this book, Intermezzo, she’s kind of found a way out and that her characters are maturing as she does, and she’s exploring new areas of human experience and emotion, while at the same time using the techniques in which she’s so expert that made her such a success. And every few pages of this book, she pulls off one of fiction, simplest and most magical tricks. Which is that as you read her descriptions of passion and heartache or drunkenness or rage, you stop and scratch your head and wonder, How did she know that? Intermezzo, I think, is a wonderful book.

Andrew Miller [00:20:18] Yeah, you too. Intermezzo Bruni’s fourth and latest novel was published at the end of September. Lots of its themes and motifs will be familiar to her many worldwide fans. Once again, she chronicles the friendships and romances of millennials with a grave moral seriousness and quite a lot of sex. You could call her style Jane Austen in modern Ireland with a dash of S&M. But I think in this book, her best, Rooney has broken free of the creative trap that literary success of the kind trees enjoyed can set. Intermezzo is the story of Ivan in Pizza, Quebec. Ivan is a 22 year old socially awkward chess whiz who falls in love with an older woman, Margaret. She’s 36, and she’s recently escaped from an alcoholic husband. Peter is a decade older than his brother, Ivan. He’s a barrister and seemingly has all the swagger and success that Ivan lacks. He’s devoted to his ex, Sylvia, but he’s also having an age gap affair of his own with a young woman called Naomi. Like the characters in Rooney’s previous novels, Bobby and Francis from Conversations with Friends, or Connell and Marianne from Normal People. The characters here are highly intelligent and educated, but they struggle to articulate their feelings and so they wind up causing pain when they really want to be kind and sabotaging their own relationships. People aren’t always very nice to the people they love, says Margaret. A line that I think could be the motto of Rooney’s entire for again in this book. She captures the swirl of power in relationships and in the course of conversations, beautifully rendering the rhythms and instant regrets of dialogue. Once again, money gets in the way and her account is long, both to be normal, whatever that means, and also to defy convention. But for all these echoes of Rooney’s previous work, I think this is her richest book. Two traumas lie at the heart of intermezzo. One of them is that Sylvia, Peter’s ex, has been very badly injured in a car crash. And the other is that the brothers, Peter and Ivan, have recently buried their dad. And grief is a bridge between them, but it’s also a chasm. The loss is hard on Ivan because he was very close to his father. And it’s hard on Peter because he wasn’t. The main difference, though, between this book and its predecessors is that the central bond and tension in it is not romantic, but fraternal. I think a lot of readers will recognise the dynamic between the brothers. The older one, Peter, is unable to recognise that little Ivan has grown up, whilst Ivan resents Big Brother Peter’s condescension but doesn’t want to recognise his weaknesses and vulnerability. And the book skilfully conveys that sense of being trapped in childhood roles that actually you’ve long outgrown. Ivan tells Peter that he hates him. Yet they share childhood experiences and memories that only they can grasp. As a reader, you sympathise with both of them and hope they can find a way to forgive each other. There’s another departure from Rooney’s previous work. The bits of the book that come from Peter’s point of view are written in a kind of staccato stream of consciousness, as if grammar were breaking down under the weight of his depression. Now, this is a technique pioneered by another Irish novelist, James Joyce, a century ago, and in the best bits it effectively mimics the thoughts and dilemma of a fractured mind. But over long passages, I think it becomes risky and some readers will appreciate it more than others. Writers who become as famous and successful as Rooney did at a very young age. He still dressed 33, faced a couple of contradictory pressures. A lot of people want them to do the same thing again, to write books similar to the ones that pleased so many readers before. And at the same time, I think writers have an instinct to do something different and show that they can, and they’ve got a wider range. This is a challenge which in Rooney’s third book, Beautiful World, Where are you? I think she struggled with. And that, to my mind, is the weakest of her four books. But now in this book, Intermezzo, she’s kind of found a way out and that her characters are maturing as she does, and she’s exploring new areas of human experience and emotion, while at the same time using the techniques in which she’s so expert that made her such a success. And every few pages of this book, she pulls off one of fiction, simplest and most magical tricks. Which is that as you read her descriptions of passion and heartache or drunkenness or rage, you stop and scratch your head and wonder, How did she know that? Intermezzo, I think, is a wonderful book.

Rosie Blau [00:26:08] That’s it for this episode of the intelligence. Do let us know what you think of the show. You can get in touch and podcasts@economist.com. We’ll see you back here tomorrow. And.

Rosie Blau [00:26:08] That’s it for this episode of the intelligence. Do let us know what you think of the show. You can get in touch and podcasts@economist.com. We’ll see you back here tomorrow. And.

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Why Chinese migrants are crossing dangerous jungle to reach America

Meet the general reinventing America’s army

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Black Boxes (part two)

Black Boxes (part one)

Who’s winning in Pennsylvania?