Graphic detail | Blow by blow

Mapping the Ukraine war: where is the latest fighting?

Our daily updated satellite view of the conflict, including Ukraine’s incursion into Russia

0.0% of Ukraine is controlled by Russia

0.0% before the invasion
0.0% since Feb 24th 2022

In the past 30 days

0 km²
gained by Ukraine
0
war-related fires
Where in Ukraine—and Russia—is the war taking place? Intelligence sources, both traditional and open-source, can give a sense of what goes on in cities such as Kyiv, and near the front line on the Ukrainian side. But it is harder to know what happens at the front, or deep in Russian-occupied areas. And what about Ukraine’s incursion into Russia? To track the fighting, we have developed a system based on data from satellites that fly over the area twice a day. Use the tools below to see where territory is contested, which side is pushing for advantage, and the precise locations—down to a neighbourhood level—bearing the brunt of the war.

Cloud cover, % of time

None

All

Other

War-related*

Russian-occupied

Ukraine

Kyiv

Kharkiv

UKRAINE

RUSSIA

Bakhmut

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

MOLDOVA

Kherson

Sea of Azov

Black Sea

Number of fires

Crimea

Cloud cover, % of time

War-related*

Other

None

All

Russian-occupied

Kyiv

Kharkiv

UKRAINE

Bakhmut

Zaporizhia

Donetsk

Kherson

Sea of Azov

RUSSIA

Crimea

Number

of fires

Black Sea

Cloud cover, % of time

None

All

Other

War-related*

Russian-occupied

Ukraine

Kyiv

Kharkiv

UKRAINE

Bakhmut

Zaporizhia

Donetsk

RUSSIA

Kherson

Sea of Azov

Black Sea

Number of fires

Crimea

Cloud cover, % of time

None

All

Other

War-related*

Russian-occupied

Ukraine

Kyiv

Kharkiv

UKRAINE

Bakhmut

Zaporizhia

Donetsk

RUSSIA

Kherson

Sea of Azov

Black Sea

Number of fires

Crimea

*Assessed by statistical model
Our tracking system is based on data from FIRMS, a publicly available system set up by NASA originally designed to detect forest fires. Like any view of the war, it is imperfect and incomplete. But unlike other methods, it offers a consistent and neutral guide to probable military activity anywhere in the country, so long as skies are clear. We have built a machine-learning algorithm that evaluates the location of each fire within Ukraine, and assesses whether or not it is related to the war. It consists of 100 separate models built to predict fire activity in non-war years. If at least 95 of these models agree that the number of fires identified at a given place and time is abnormally high by pre-war standards, the algorithm marks these “extra” fires as war-related. So far, the model has mapped over 130,000 war-related fires. Many are probably artillery fire, but others result from attacks such as missile and drone strikes.

Ukrainian incursion

Fires

RUSSIA

Kursk

Sumy

Belgorod

UKRAINE

Ukrainian incursion

Fires

Kyiv

RUSSIA

Kursk

Sumy

Belgorod

UKRAINE

Ukrainian incursion

Fires

Kyiv

RUSSIA

Kursk

Sumy

Belgorod

UKRAINE

Russian territory controlled by Ukraine

undefined km²
in total
NaN km²
lost in past 48 hours
On August 6th 2024, Ukrainian forces invaded Kursk, a region of Russia beyond Ukraine’s northern border. The map above shows the activity our satellite-data system has detected in the area since the operation began. It also shows the territory Ukraine currently controls, and how that area has changed over time. The operation is easily dwarfed in scale by Russia’s attack on Ukraine.
Read more of our coverage of the war:
Our country-wide map conceals a war that is fought village by village, street by street. The conflict has been defined not by big gains in territory, but often grinding battles: for Kyiv, Kherson, Bakhmut, Robotyne and Avdiivkva. In our interactive map below, as well as probable military activity, we highlight urban areas, logistical infrastructure, and, on the Russian side, known fortifications. It allows you to zoom in on areas of interest, be it a region, town or road junction.
Number of fires
1
00
War-related
Other
Occupied area
Fortifications
Which side controls the territory where these strikes take place? To assess this, and the share of Ukraine occupied by Russia, we rely on daily open-source intelligence assessments of territorial control from the Institute for the Study of War, a think-tank. Our charts below show how war-fire activity—and control of the country—has evolved.

War-related fires, by area of control

Seven-day moving average, days with less than 50% cloud cover

Ukrainian territory controlled by Russia, %

*No day with less than 50% cloud cover in surrounding week
Our method to track the fighting has limitations. The location of the fires detected is imprecise, and could be off by as much as 1km, depending on the satellite. Some of the fires it marks as war-related are probably not. Given its strict thresholds, the number that are not flagged as war-related but should be is probably even larger. Moreover, many fires never get detected at all, either because they end before the satellites pass overhead or because the satellites’ view is blocked by clouds. (Much as fire is a constant of war, so is its fog.) Our picture is a guide to activity, and far from a full tally of the devastation.
Nonetheless, this system offers unique insights. It detects activity anywhere in the country, and—weather permitting—provides live counts of fire events day by day. As the war continues, our maps will continue to update. ■
Inspect all our code, data, and models on GitHub.
Sources: DMSP Nighttime Lights; ESA; EUMETSAT; Google Earth Engine; Institute for the Study of War; NASA; WorldPop; OpenStreetMap; Bing Maps; Brady Africk; The Economist

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