The risk that the war in Ukraine escalates past the nuclear threshold
Disaster does not seem imminent but it does seem disturbingly possible
TO A 16TH-CENTURY siege warrior, the art of the escalade lay in climbing up a city’s fortifications without encountering something unpleasantly hot or sharp. To the men who rewrote the rules of strategy for the nuclear age, the art of escalation was the process which, bit by bit, moved a limited war towards an unlimited one. As in sieges of old, the key was a ladder: a conceptual one where each rung both increased the level of the conflict and sent a signal to the other side.
This article appeared in the Briefing section of the print edition under the headline “Herman’s ladder”
From the March 19th 2022 edition
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Has the war in Gaza radicalised young Palestinians?
After Gaza, how will the Palestinians try to build their state?
A year on, Israeli society is divided about the lessons of October 7th
Hawks and doves, religious and secular, right and left—all the old cleavages are resurfacing
The bloodshed in the Middle East is fast expanding
Israel seems certain to retaliate to Iran’s missile attack
What Hamas misunderstood about the Middle East
A war meant to draw in the militant group’s allies has instead left them battered
After the decapitation of Hizbullah, Iran could race for a nuclear bomb
The embattled clerical regime might feel the need for stronger deterrence
Ukraine is on the defensive, militarily, economically and diplomatically
Russian advances, fatigue among its allies and political divisions at home leave it in a bind