Methods for all moments
The Nobel prize in economics reveals how little we know about the behaviour of markets
THE “prize in economic sciences in memory of Alfred Nobel”, as it is officially known, sometimes struggles to command the same respect as its counterparts. Though awarded by the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, just like the prizes in physics, chemistry and medicine, it was a latecomer to the ceremonies, established in 1968 by Sweden’s central bank rather than in 1896 by Mr Nobel’s will. This year’s winners appeared to reinforce doubts about the prize’s standing. One, Eugene Fama of Chicago, is known for his ardent belief in the efficiency of markets: he declined to renew his subscription to this newspaper after tiring of its incessant warning about bubbles, the very existence of which he denies. Robert Shiller from Yale, in contrast, is known for his prescient warnings of bubbles, in technology stocks in the 1990s and in housing in the 2000s.
This article appeared in the Finance & economics section of the print edition under the headline “Methods for all moments”
From the October 19th 2013 edition
Discover stories from this section and more in the list of contents
Explore the editionDiscover more
Could war in the Gulf push oil to $100 a barrel?
Missiles are flying over a region that supplies a third of the world’s crude
How bond investors soured on France
They now regard the euro zone’s second-largest economy as riskier than Spain
Can Andrea Orcel, Europe’s star banker, create a super-bank?
An interview with the boss of UniCredit
Why economic warfare nearly always misses its target
There is no such thing as a strategic commodity
A tonne of public debt is never made public
New research suggests governments routinely hide their borrowing
Xi Jinping’s belated stimulus has reset the mood in Chinese markets
But can the buying frenzy last?